This paper examines variation in the fertility of southern black farmers
near the turn of the century. The data source is a 1 in 750 sample of households
taken from the 1900 manuscript census. Environmental and individual character
istics are used in regression analyses to predict the number of children ever born
to married women between the ages of 15 and 44. Comparable results are
presented for southern native white farmers. The results show substantially dif
ferent predictors for the two groups. The fertility of blacks responded positively
to the presence of manufacturing activity in their county, while whites exhibited
the opposite relationship. Further, land shortages significantly depressed white
fertility, but were unrelated to black reproduction. A possible interpretation of
these discrepant results is offered, emphasizing the inferior social position of and
restricted opportunities for southern blacks in the late 1800s. Finally, it is con
cluded that a mix of voluntary and involuntary forces was probably responsible
for the rural black fertility transition which began in the late nineteenth century.
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