A Comparative Analysis of Motorcyclist Injury Severity During Cold and Warm Weather Conditions Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

A remarkable trend has been observed in the state of Washington in which the number of fatalities per billion vehicle miles traveled during warm months highly exceeds those in colder ones. Moreover, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated this trend. Therefore, the current study aimed to address how the weather conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic affected motorcyclists’ injury severities. A random parameter multinomial logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances was estimated as a methodological approach. Further, to investigate the temporal stability between cold and warm weather conditions and the pandemic, a holistic model and six separate models were developed. Several factors were found to drastically affect motorcyclist injuries depending on the weather conditions. For instance, during cold months, dry roads and lighting conditions played a significant role, whereas during warm months, distracted driving and lane changing were key contributors. The estimation results also highlighted the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in altering these factors and their impacts on injury severities sustained by motorcyclists. In particular, the use of drugs had a more significant impact in 2020 compared with previous years in both cold and warm weather models. Additionally, the indicator of vehicles running off the road after the crash was only significant during the pandemic for both cold and warm months. The study findings highlight the urgent need to improve motorcycle safety by implementing policies and countermeasures and intensifying efforts to examine the impacts of weather conditions and pandemics on the injury severity of motorcyclists.