Severity Analysis of Pedestrian and Bike Crashes in School Buffer Zones

Abstract

Pedestrian and bicyclist safety in school zones is critical because of the vulnerability of children and adult pedestrians to vehicle crashes. This paper explores vehicle–pedestrian/bike crash severity within a 15-min walking time buffer around schools in Detroit, Michigan, and San Jose, California—cities with high pedestrian/bike fatality rates. Using 2016–2020 crash data, we employed random-parameter multinomial logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances to understand unobserved relationships between variables. Key random parameters identified include the number of buffer zones that each crash falls into, daylight conditions, and the number of units involved in a crash, all significantly affecting injury severity. Spatial stability was investigated to see if variable effects were consistent across locations. Results revealed spatial instability across Detroit and San Jose. Factors such as Covid lockdown, dark lighting, arterial road presence, bicycle crashes, and the number of units involved showed stable effects with varying magnitudes in both cities. Network buffer zones highlighted that crash proximity to multiple schools affects injury severity. Additionally, the study found that various behavioral, roadway, weather, lighting, and school-related factors influence injury severity in school zones. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and planners to develop countermeasures, making school areas safer for children, adult pedestrians, and bicyclists.