Severity Analysis of Secondary Crashes on High-Speed Roadways: Pattern Recognition Using Association Rule Mining

Abstract

Secondary crashes (SCs) are a major concern, posing additional safety threats to both non-involved vehicles and incident responders. The objective of this study was to identify the affiliated factors contributing to SCs on roadways with a speed limit of 55 mph or above. Traditional police-investigated crash dataset was analyzed, spanning more than four years (January 2016–February 2020) for the entire state of Alabama. As the crash database did not directly include information on SCs and did not allow for linking a primary crash with a subsequent SC, a data extraction process was developed to identify SCs and understand their characteristics. Association rule mining (ARM) was applied to identify crash patterns based on maximum injury severity levels. The generated rules were filtered based on support, confidence, and lift, and then validated by the lift increase criterion. The results revealed complex relationships between risk factors and severity of SCs. In relation to SCs with injuries, single-vehicle crashes were frequently observed during peak hours and when drivers swerved to avoid objects/persons/vehicles. In contrast, concerning SCs with possible/no injuries, single-vehicle collisions were more likely to occur when drivers failed to notice objects/persons/vehicles and were involved in speeding. On urban interstates, single-vehicle SCs were frequently associated with injuries, while rear-end SCs were often linked to possible/no injuries. The findings of this study can be helpful in enhancing existing traffic incident management programs to mitigate the occurrence of SCs.