Modelling the Long-Term Expected Impact of the Covid-19 Crisis on Commute and Telecommute

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic crisis has forced many people to work from home rather than at their regular workplace. This paper explores the expected long-term changes caused by the pandemic crisis in Israel on work-related travel patterns, that is, the shifts in commuting and telecommuting post- versus pre-pandemic. Methodologically, the analysis is based on two consecutive surveys (of the same respondents) that were distributed during the pandemic (April and June 2020) to evaluate the trends in commuting and telecommuting from pre- to post-pandemic, addressing revealed preferences on work habits before and during the pandemic and stated intentions about work patterns after the pandemic. Four models were estimated based on these data: two multinomial logit models analyzing the trends in commuting and teleworking from before to after the pandemic, and two ordered logit models addressing the frequency of the intended teleworking and commuting trips in the post-pandemic era. The results showed that the Covid-19 crisis is expected to have some long-term implications, specifically, based on our sample, a 5%–6% expected reduction in commuting trips, alongside an expected increase in teleworking. While several socio-demographic, work-related, and personality traits were found to significantly influence commuting/telecommuting trends and frequency, it is interesting to note that working solely from home during the lockdown was found to have a prominent impact on increasing teleworking while decreasing commuting. Quantitative consistency evaluation of behavioral-shift statements across the consecutive surveys revealed moderate consistency, which is very reasonable given the instability associated with the Covid-19 crisis and the inherent changes in human perceptions.