Segment-Level Spatial Spillover Effects of Exogenous Characteristics of Arterials on Crash Frequency

Abstract

Studies of spatial effects on road traffic safety are highly skewed in relation to aggregation units. As a result, the spatial effect of road traffic crashes at segment-level aggregation is rarely investigated. In light of that, this study investigates spatial spillover effects to determine the effects of independent variable changes initiated in one segment on the dependent variable of its neighboring segments. Additionally, the performance of the implemented models is evaluated under five different spatial weighting approaches. Spatial spillover effect of fatal and injury crashes aggregated at the segment level is estimated with the spatial lag of explanatory variables model under the general framework of Poisson and negative binomial models. The results indicate (i) spatial spillover effects are better modeled with spatial relation conceptualized by inverse distance spatial weighting schemes; (ii) spatial lag of explanatory variables under negative binomial and inverse distance spatial weighting provides the best model fitting; (iii) exogenous interactions among influence factors of fatal and injury crashes have a noteworthy effect in determining the crash frequency of neighboring segments. Convincingly, spatial spillover effect seems to significantly affect the results of conventional count modeling at the segment levels. To that effect, this study expects to provide empirical evidence and complement the existing literature on the impact of changes in explanatory variables initiated in a given segment on the safety of segments in proximity.

Keywords

spillover effects spatial lag crash frequency segment-level aggregation spatial weight

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Atumo

E. A.

Fang

Jiang

Spatial Statistics and Random Forest Approaches for Traffic Crash Hot Spot Identification and Prediction. International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, Vol. 29, No. 2, 2022, pp. 207–216. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2021.1983844.

Mannering

F. L.

Bhat

C. R.

Analytic Methods in Accident Research: Methodological Frontier and Future Directions. Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Vol. 1, 2014, pp. 1–22. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2213665713000031.

Ayele Atumo

Jiang

Spatial Point Pattern Analysis of Traffic Violations in Luzhou City, China. Transportation Letters, Vol. 14, No. 10, 2022, pp. 1162–1171. https://doi.org/10.1080/19427867.2021.2007452.

Ziakopoulos

Yannis

A Review of Spatial Approaches in Road Safety. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 135, 2020, p. 105323. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0001457519309893.

Aguero-Valverde

Jovanis

P. P.

Analysis of Road Crash Frequency With Spatial Models. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2008. 2061: 55–63.

Soroori

Mohammadzadeh Moghaddam

Salehi

Modeling Spatial Nonstationary and Overdispersed Crash Data: Development and Comparative Analysis of Global and Geographically Weighted Regression Models Applied to Macrolevel Injury Crash Data. Journal of Transportation Safety & Security, Vol. 13, No. 9, 2021, pp. 1000–1024. https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2020.1712671.

Gomes

M. J. T. L.

Cunto

da Silva

A. R.

Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression Applied to Zonal Level Safety Performance Models. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 106, 2017, pp. 254–261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2017.06.011.

Huang

Modeling Crash Spatial Heterogeneity: Random Parameter Versus Geographically Weighting. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 75, 2015, pp. 16–25. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2014.10.020.

Hong

Shankar

V. N.

Venkataraman

A Spatially Autoregressive and Heteroskedastic Space-Time Pedestrian Exposure Modeling Framework With Spatial Lags and Endogenous Network Topologies. Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Vol. 10, 2016, pp. 26–46. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.amar.2016.05.001.

10.

Hong

Park

Lee

Park

Endogenous Commercial Driver’s Traffic Violations and Freight Truck-Involved Crashes on Mainlines of Expressway. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 131, 2019, pp. 327–335. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2019.07.026.

11.

Chen

Liu

Xiao

Long

Integrative Analysis of Spatial Heterogeneity and Overdispersion of Crime With a Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Model. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, Vol. 9, No. 1, 2020, p. 60. https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/9/1/60.

12.

Pljakić

Jovanović

Matović

Mićić

Macro-Level Accident Modeling in Novi Sad: A Spatial Regression Approach. Accident Analysis Prevention, Vol. 132, 2019, p. 105259. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0001457519306190.

13.

Barua

El-Basyouny

Islam

M. T.

A Full Bayesian Multivariate Count Data Model of Collision Severity With Spatial Correlation. Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Vol. 3–4, 2014, pp. 28–43. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.amar.2014.09.001.

14.

Barua

El-Basyouny

Islam

M. T.

Multivariate Random Parameters Collision Count Data Models With Spatial Heterogeneity. Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Vol. 9, 2016, pp. 1–15. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.amar.2015.11.002.

15.

Satria

Aguero-Valverde

Castro

Spatial Analysis of Road Crash Frequency Using Bayesian Models With Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). Journal of Transportation Safety & Security, Vol. 13, No. 11, 2021, pp. 1240–1262. https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2020.1726542.

16.

Cai

Lee

Eluru

Abdel-Aty

Macro-Level Pedestrian and Bicycle Crash Analysis: Incorporating Spatial Spillover Effects in Dual State Count Models. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 93, 2016, pp. 14–22. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2016.04.018.

17.

Mohamed

vom Hofe

Mazumder

Jurisdictional Spillover Effects of Sprawl on Injuries and Fatalities. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 72, 2014, pp. 9–16. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2014.05.028.

18.

Zhou

Jiang

Liu

Zhang

Bayesian Spatial Correlation, Heterogeneity and Spillover Effect Modeling for Speed Mean and Variance on Urban Road Networks. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 174, 2022, p. 106756. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2022.106756.

19.

Dong

Huang

Zheng

Support Vector Machine in Crash Prediction at the Level of Traffic Analysis Zones: Assessing the Spatial Proximity Effects. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 82, 2015, pp. 192–198. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2015.05.018.

20.

Bhowmik

Rahman

Yasmin

Eluru

Exploring Analytical, Simulation-Based, and Hybrid Model Structures for Multivariate Crash Frequency Modeling. Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Vol. 31, 2021, p. 100167. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2213665721000117.

21.

Elhorst

J. P.

Linear Spatial Dependence Models for Cross-Section Data. In Spatial Econometrics ( Elhorst

J. P.

, ed.), Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2014, pp. 5–36. http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-642-40340-8_2.

22.

Gibbons

Overman

H. G.

Mostly Pointless Spatial Econometrics?

Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 52, No. 2, 2012, pp. 172–191. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2012.00760.x.

23.

Pinkse

Slade

M. E.

The Future of Spatial Econometrics. Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 50, No. 1, 2010, pp. 103–117. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2009.00645.x.

24.

Manski

C. F.

Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem. The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 60, No. 3, 1993, pp. 531–542. https://academic.oup.com/restud/article-lookup/doi/10.2307/2298123.

25.

Manski

C. F.

Identification Problems in the Social Sciences and Everyday Life. Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 70, No. 1, 2003, pp. 11–21. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1061629?origin=crossref.

26.

Rüttenauer

Spatial Regression Models: A Systematic Comparison of Different Model Specifications Using Monte Carlo Experiments. Sociological Methods & Research, Vol. 51, No. 2, 2022, pp. 728–759. http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0049124119882467.

27.

Halleck Vega

Elhorst

J. P.

The SLX Model. Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 55, No. 3, 2015, pp. 339–363. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jors.12188.

28.

LeSage

Pace

R. K.

Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. In Introduction to Spatial Econometrics ( Balakrishnan

Schucany

W. R.

, eds.), 1st ed., Chapman and Hall/CRCNew York, NY, 2009, 1–341 p. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9781420064254.

29.

Elhorst

J. P.

Applied Spatial Econometrics: Raising the Bar. Spatial Economic Analysis, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2010, pp. 9–28. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17421770903541772.

30.

Elhorst

J. P.

Vega

S. H.

On Spatial Econometric Models, Spillover Effects, and W. Proc., ERSA Conference Papers, Palermo, Italy, European Regional Science Association, 2013, pp. 1–28. http://ideas.repec.org/p/wiw/wiwrsa/ersa13p222.html.

31.

Glaser

A Review of Spatial Econometric Models for Count Data. Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences, No. 19–2017. University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, 2017. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:hohdps:192017.

32.

Besag

Spatial Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of Lattice Systems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), Vol. 36, No. 2, 1974, pp. 192–236. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2984812.

33.

Lambert

D. M.

Brown

J. P.

Florax

R. J. G. M.

A Two-Step Estimator for a Spatial Lag Model of Counts: Theory, Small Sample Performance and an Application. Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 40, No. 4, 2010, pp. 241–252. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2010.04.001.

34.

LeSage

J. P.

Fischer

M. M.

Scherngell

Knowledge Spillovers Across Europe: Evidence From a Poisson Spatial Interaction Model With Spatial Effects. Papers in Regional Science, Vol. 86, No. 3, 2007, pp. 393–421. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2007.00125.x.

35.

Gschlößl

Czado

Does a Gibbs Sampler Approach to Spatial Poisson Regression Models Outperform a Single Site MH Sampler?

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Vol. 52, No. 9, 2008, pp. 4184–4202.

36.

Liesenfeld

Richard

J.-F.

Vogler

Likelihood Evaluation of High-Dimensional Spatial Latent Gaussian Models With Non-Gaussian Response Variables. In Spatial Econometrics: Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variables. Advances in Econometrics ( Baltagi

B. H.

Lesage

J. P.

Pace

R. K.

, eds.), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, 2016, pp. 35–77. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/S0731-905320160000037009/full/html

37.

Zhou

Cui

Spatial Analysis of Taxi Speeding Event Using GPS Trajectory Data. Proc., IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference (ITSC), Auckland, New Zealand, IEEE, New York, 2019, pp. 122–127.

38.

Anselin

Getis

Spatial Statistical Analysis and Geographic Information Systems. In Perspectives on Spatial Data Analysis ( Anselin

Rey

S. J.

, eds.), Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2010, pp. 35–47. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-01976-0_3.

39.

Aguero-Valverde

Direct Spatial Correlation in Crash Frequency Models: Estimation of the Effective Range. Journal of Transportation Safety & Security, Vol. 6, No. 1, 2014, pp. 21–33. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19439962.2013.799108.

40.

Choi

Chin

Lee

Machine Learning Predictive Model Based on National Data for Fatal Accidents of Construction Workers. Automation in Construction, Vol. 110, 2020, p. 102974. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2019.102974.

41.

Saha

Alluri

Gan

Spatial Analysis of Macro-Level Bicycle Crashes Using the Class of Conditional Autoregressive Models. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 118, 2018, pp. 166–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2018.02.014.

42.

Xie

Ozbay

Yang

A Multivariate Spatial Approach to Model Crash Counts by Injury Severity. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 122, 2019, pp. 189–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2018.10.009.

43.

Song

J. J.

Ghosh

Miaou

Mallick

Bayesian Multivariate Spatial Models for Roadway Traffic Crash Mapping. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Vol. 97, No. 1, 2006, pp. 246–273.

44.

Dong

Meng

Zhang

Wong

S. C.

Towards Activity-Based Exposure Measures in Spatial Analysis of Pedestrian–Motor Vehicle Crashes. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 148, 2020, p. 105777. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105777.

45.

Cai

Abdel-Aty

Lee

Eluru

Comparative Analysis of Zonal Systems for Macro-Level Crash Modeling. Journal of Safety Research, Vol. 61, 2017, pp. 157–166. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2017.02.018.

46.

Wang

Yang

Lee

You

Macro-Level Safety Analysis of Pedestrian Crashes in Shanghai, China. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 96, 2016, pp. 12–21. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2016.07.028.

47.

Atumo

E. A.

Jiang

Segment-Level Spatial Heterogeneity of Arterial Crash Frequency Using Locally Weighted Generalized Linear Models. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 2022: 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981221126510.

48.

Wen

Zhang

Zeng

Lee

Yuan

Investigating Spatial Autocorrelation and Spillover Effects in Freeway Crash-Frequency Data. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 16, No. 2, 2019, p. 219. http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/2/219.

49.

Gilardi

Mateu

Borgoni

Lovelace

Multivariate Hierarchical Analysis of Car Crashes Data Considering a Spatial Network Lattice. arXiv Preprint arXiv:2011.12595, 2020.

50.

Huang

Dong

The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Traffic Safety: Basic Issue, Potential Solutions and Future Research. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (English Edition), Vol. 5, No. 1, 2018, pp. 73–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtte.2015.09.010.

51.

Koorey

Road Data Aggregation and Sectioning Considerations for Crash Analysis. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2009. 2103: 61–68.

52.

AASHTO. Highway Safety Manual, 1st ed. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C., 2010.

53.

Thomas

Spatial Data Aggregation: Exploratory Analysis of Road Accidents. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 28, No. 2, 1996, pp. 251–264. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0001457595000674.

54.

ESRI. Spatial Join. ArcMap 10.8 Help Archive, 2021. https://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap/latest/tools/analysis-toolbox/spatial-join.htm. Accessed January 23, 2022.

55.

Grekousis

Spatial Analysis Methods and Practice. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, 2020. https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/9781108614528/type/book.

56.

Dubé

Legros

Spatial Econometrics Using Microdata ( Ruas

, ed.), 1st ed. ISTE Ltd, London and John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, 2014, 252 p.

57.

Fischer

M. M.

Reismann

Scherngell

Spatial Interaction and Spatial Autocorrelation. In Perspectives on Spatial Data Analysis. Advances in Spatial Science ( Anselin

Rey

S. J.

, eds.), Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2010, pp. 61–79. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-01976-0_5.

58.

Lord

Mannering

The Statistical Analysis of Crash-Frequency Data: A Review and Assessment of Methodological Alternatives. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 44, No. 5, 2010, pp. 291–305. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2010.02.001.

59.

Washington

Karlaftis

M. G.

Mannering

Anastasopoulos

Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis. 3rd ed. New York: Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2020, 496 p.

60.

Kim

J. H.

Multicollinearity and Misleading Statistical Results. Korean Journal of Anesthesiology, Vol. 72, No. 6, 2019, pp. 558–569. https://doi.org/10.4097/kja.19087.

61.

Burnham

K. P.

Anderson

D. R.

, eds. Information and Likelihood Theory: A Basis for Model Selection and Inference. In Model Selection and Multimodel Inference, Springer, New York, NY, 2002, pp. 49–97. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-22456-5_2.

62.

Fotheringham

A. S.

Brunsdon

Charlton

Geographically Weighted Regression: The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships. 2002. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000QEC8T6/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i0. Accessed February 15, 2021.

63.

Zhang

Sun

D. J.

Shen

Zhu

Analyzing Spatiotemporal Congestion Pattern on Urban Roads Based on Taxi GPS Data. Journal of Transport and Land Use, Vol. 10, No. 1, 2017, pp. 675–694. https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/954.

64.

Lord

Qin

Geedipally

S. R.

Models for Spatial Data. In Highway Safety Analytics and Modeling ( Lord

Qin

Geedipally

S. R.

, eds.), Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2021, pp. 299–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-816818-9.00009-3.

65.

Anastasopoulos

P. C.

Mannering

F. L.

A Note on Modeling Vehicle Accident Frequencies With Random-Parameters Count Models. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2009, pp. 153–159. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0001457508001954.

66.

Sameen

M. I.

Pradhan

Assessment of the Effects of Expressway Geometric Design Features on the Frequency of Accident Crash Rates Using High-Resolution Laser Scanning Data and GIS. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, Vol. 8, No. 2, 2017, pp. 733–747. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2016.1265012.

67.

Bhowmik

Yasmin

Eluru

Do we Need Multivariate Modeling Approaches to Model Crash Frequency by Crash Types? A Panel Mixed Approach to Modeling Crash Frequency by Crash Types. Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Vol. 24, 2019, p. 100107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amar.2019.100107.

68.

Adane

B. Y.

Hou

Peng

Ullah

Abate

D. Y.

Determinants of Influence Factors in Crashes Alongside an Intersection Using a Multinomial Logit Approach. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2022: 1–13. http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/03611981221108150.

69.

Doecke

S. D.

Kloeden

C. N.

Dutschke

J. K.

Baldock

M. R. J.

Safe Speed Limits for a Safe System: The Relationship Between Speed Limit and Fatal Crash Rate for Different Crash Types. Traffic Injury Prevention, Vol. 19, No. 4, 2018, pp. 404–408. https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2017.1422601.

70.

Tagar

Pulugurtha

S. S.

Effect of Increasing the Freeway Posted Speed Limit on Entry Ramp Speed-Change Lane Crash Frequency. Transportation Engineering, Vol. 4, 2021, p. 100067. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2666691X21000233.

71.

Alhomaidat

Kwigizile

J.-S.

Van Houten

How Does an Increased Freeway Speed Limit Influence the Frequency of Crashes on Adjacent Roads?

Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 136, 2020, p. 105433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105433.

72.

Fan

Zhang

Lee

Meng

Zhang

Jiang

Comprehensive Evaluation of Signal-Coordinated Arterials on Traffic Safety. Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Vol. 21, 2019, pp. 32–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amar.2019.01.001.