Exploring the Nonlinearity of Commute-Time Utility Considering Individual Ideal Preferences and Tolerance ThresholdsC: ase Study in Kunming

Abstract

Exploring the nonlinearity of commute-time utility is useful in predicting urban travel demand. However, existing studies assume that commute utility decreases linearly with commute time. This ignores the influence of commuters’ ideal preferences and tolerance thresholds on commute utility. To reveal the nonlinear variation of commute utility with commute time and its influence on the choice of commute mode, the ideal commute time (ICT) and the tolerance threshold for commute time (TTCT) were introduced. Three-piecewise linear utility models (Models 2, 3, 4) were constructed and compared with the linear utility multinomial logit model (Model 1). The results of empirical study showed that: (a) the goodness of fit of these three modified models is higher than that of Model 1, indicating that the fitting effect of the commute-time utility model can be improved with either or both the ICT and TTCT; (b) there is a nonlinear relationship between the commute utility and the commute time. The commute-time utility decreases slowly before ICT, declines steadily between the ICT and the TTCT, and falls significantly after TTCT; and (c) when the commute time exceeds the TTCT, the perceived utility of commuters traveling by walking or cycling decreases significantly, and there are few changes in the perceived utility of commuters by car, which increases the probability that commuters who use active modes will transfer to commuting by car. The research results have implications for improving the prediction capacity of commute mode choice model and could guide commuters to switch to more sustainable commute modes.