Modeling the COVID-19 Travel Choices in Colombia and India: A Hybrid Multiple Discrete-Continuous Nested Extreme Value Approach

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected many daily activities, primarily as a result of the perceived contagion risk and government restrictions to mitigate the spread of the virus. To this end, drastic changes in the trip choices for commuting to work have been reported and studied, mostly through descriptive analysis. On the other hand, modeling-based research that can simultaneously understand both changes in mode choice and its frequency at an individual level has not been much used in existing studies. As such, this study aims to understand the changes in mode-choice preference and the frequency of trips, comparing pre-COVID with during-COVID scenarios, in two different countries of the Global South: Colombia and India. A hybrid multiple discrete-continuous nested extreme value model was implemented using the data obtained from online surveys in Colombia and India during the early COVID-19 period of March and April 2020. This study found that, in both countries, utility related to active modes (more used) and public transportation (less used) changed during the pandemic. In addition, this study highlights potential risks in likely unsustainable futures where there may be increased use of private vehicles such as cars and motorcycles, in both countries. It was also identified that perceptions toward government responses had a significant impact on the choices in Colombia, though this was not the case in India. These results may help decision makers focus on public policies to encourage sustainable transportation by avoiding the detrimental long-term behavioral changes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.