On Heterogenous Sampling Rates in Origin–Destination Matrix Estimation Based on Trajectory Data and Link Counts

Abstract

Being a fundamental metric of the transportation network, the origin–destination (O-D) flow matrix is a critical input for various transportation models and studies. This paper deals with the estimation of an O-D matrix of trip flows based on two kinds of data: probe trajectory data and local traffic counts. A Bayesian assignment framework is developed for demonstrating the relationship between the link probe sampling rates and the fractional contributions from the sampling rates on different O-D pairs. The unknown O-D matrix is estimated by applying cross entropy minimization using a prior matrix from the probe trajectories, along with the Bayesian assignment rules on link sample rates as the constraints. The methodology was applied using floating car data and camera link flow counts for a numerical experiment. The results show that the method can achieve a robust estimation of O-D matrices, even using different prior matrices. The issue of the heterogeneous sampling rates can be well addressed with link count constraints, effectively correcting the unknown bias in the probe sampling. The case study using real data also proves the feasibility of mining observed trajectory data to obtain the assignment fractions and estimate the O-D matrix inversely, avoiding the conventional sophisticated process of traffic assignment modeling.