The Impact of a Single Bus Rapid Transit Corridor on Transit Ridership: The Winnipeg Example

Abstract

This research explores how the implementation of a single bus rapid transit (BRT) corridor affected transit ridership change in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Key issues in measuring ridership change resulting from BRT include (1) understanding stop-level- rather than corridor-level change; (2) examining the ridership impacts of new infrastructure where there is no comparable pre-BRT infrastructure; and (3) assessing piecemeal implementation of BRT. To address these issues, we undertook a quasi-experimental study using agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC), propensity score matching (PSM), and t-tests with Cohen’s d to determine BRT’s causal ridership impact. The use of AHC and PSM in what we refer to as cluster-level modeling provided an improved method for measuring causal ridership change at the stop cluster level in areas with no pre-BRT stations. The results revealed no statistical evidence that BRT caused increased transit ridership for stop clusters directly along the BRT corridor. However, the results did indicate that stop clusters for routes connecting to a BRT station experienced an increase in transit ridership. The importance of such findings is grounded in understanding that a limited number of stops along a single corridor may not be enough to affect transit ridership, yet BRT’s flexibility in being able to operate off the BRT corridor does enhance transit ridership.