An approach to model extreme wind speed distributions using the Weather Research and Forecasting model

Abstract

The aim of this study was to generate hourly mean monthly maximum wind speed return period curves for heights 60 m above the ground using Weather Research and Forecasting modeled data. The methodology introduced produces long-term wind speed data in places where the available measured series for such heights are not long enough for a correct extreme value analysis. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data are used as input for the Weather Research and Forecasting simulations, providing information for the period 1979–2015. The modeled results are compared with wind speed series measured in anemometric towers, available for the period 2008–2015. Weather Research and Forecasting output is then adjusted to model properly the wind speed at the measuring sites. A good representation of the cumulative distribution of monthly maxima was reached after applying a double linear adjustment.