Abstract
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, does not like criticism and, according to people who know him, he holds lifelong grudges. Of course, holding grudges in old age can exacerbate one’s psychological and physical maladies. So, after the rigged presidential election in June 2009, the old tyrant decided to get rid of all the domestic critics of his tyrannical rule. Khamenei thought that by unleashing his supporters in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and paramilitary Basij he could oppress a great number of people in a very short time. It was a ridiculously impossible task, but despots are not known for their clear understanding of realities.
Khamenei’s plan miserably and quickly failed, but that did not stop him from brutalising his people (for some reason, the sound of crushing bones and cracking skulls are music to the ears of dictators). Yet Khamenei and the Guards’ intoxication with power did away with any claim to legitimacy the supreme leader had previously enjoyed, and has made him and his regime less sure of their own survival.
Alexis de Tocqueville famously said that the most critical moment for bad governments is the one which witnesses their first steps toward reform. The wrong Tocquevillian lesson would be repeating the same mistakes. Alas, Khameni is doing exactly that. The Iranian regime is making the lives of its citizens as insecure as possible through arbitrary arrests, interrogation, harassment and confiscation of property. Both the regime and the people are reaching boiling point, and the situation is untenable. Even President Ahmadinejad, who was elected with Khamenei’s help, has been critical of the regime. During the attack on the British Embassy in November 2011, Ahmadinejad’s supporters were quite critical of what happened, while the president himself remained silent. No one regards Ahmadinejad as a sincere opponent of the regime, but he does not want to be on a sinking ship.
An increasing number of Iranians are demanding a transparent and accountable government. The main problem in Iran so far has been that all the governments that have ruled the country have believed that their power has been bestowed by God and that they are accountable only to the Almighty. The former Shah of Iran used to call himself ‘the Shadow of God’. Khamenei’s supporters regard him as ‘Allah’s representative on earth’. These titles essentially mean that people’s votes and decisions are worthless.
Yet despite their utter disdain for people’s votes, autocrats love to be popular. Every few months, Khamenei’s people spend millions of dollars bringing together a large number of people from different provinces and asking them to shout slogans such as ‘We are ready to die for you, Our Leader’ or ‘The blood in our veins is dedicated to Our Leader.’ Some members of these crowds may genuinely regard their lives as less worthy than Khamenei’s, but in my view most of them take part in these gatherings for both the perks and for fear of punishment. I know for a fact that pro-Khamenei demonstrators receive bonuses and extra food rations, and that government employees who refuse to ‘dedicate their blood to the leader’ can lose their jobs.
Khamenei and some members of his regime have become delusional and it seems that they really do not understand that if they continue to carry out the actions that they have been taking for the past 33 years, the Islamic regime cannot survive for much longer. Imprisoning peaceful critics and imprisoning and torturing opponents didn’t help the Soviet Union. It won’t help Khamenei’s regime either. ❒