During evacuations, households make a number of important, related choices including accommodation type, destination, and departure time. They may make trade-offs among these choices where one decision affects the others. The analysis models the linkages among these three aforementioned choices using data from a household behavioral intention survey conducted in 2017 in the Hampton Roads, VA area. Statistical tests and a theoretical basis show that the approach that best fits the dataset was to estimate the three choices in a sequence, where the first decision serves as an independent variable in the next choice process. To model the sequence, we began by modeling accommodation choice using a multinomial logit (MNL) model. Next, the accommodation choice decisions were used with other control variables to estimate destination choice in a second MNL model. Last, evacuation distance (related to destination decisions) was used in a Cox proportional-hazards model to estimate departure time choices. The models that provide the best estimates included the following control variables that help explain the sequence of decisions residents in the Hampton Roads area expect to make: (1) a variable expressing residential stability helps explain accommodation choice; (2) prior evacuation experience, the geographic location of a household, and the duration of living in the area help predict the destination choice; and (3) distance to the chosen destination helps predict departure time. Findings from this study provide evidence that the decisions associated with these three choices influence each other and help emergency managers identify additional actions that potentially can improve the evacuation experiences of local residents.
AlawadiRoaaMurray-TuitePamelaBianRuijie. 2022. “Determinants of Departure Timing for Hurricane Matthew and Anticipated Consistency in Future Evacuation Departures.” Natural Hazards Review23 (2): 04022005. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000553.
2.
AnShiWangZeCuiJianxun. 2015. “Integrating Regret Psychology to Travel Mode Choice for a Transit-Oriented Evacuation Strategy.” Sustainability7 (7): 8116–31. https://doi.org/10.3390/su7078116.
BianRuijieMurray-TuitePamelaEdaraPraveenTriantisKonstantinos. 2022. “Household Hurricane Evacuation Plan Adaptation in Response to Estimated Travel Delay Provided Prior to Departure.” Natural Hazards Review23 (3): 04022010-1. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000557.
5.
BianRuijieWilmotChester G.GudishalaRavindraBakerEarl J.. 2019. “Modeling Household-Level Hurricane Evacuation Mode and Destination Type Joint Choice Using Data from Multiple Post-Storm Behavioral Surveys.” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies99: 130–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2019.01.009.
6.
BrunsmaDavid L.OverfeltDavidStevenJ.. Picou. 2007. The Sociology of Katrina: Perspectives on a Modern Catastrophe. New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.
7.
CarnegieJon A.DekaDevajyoti. 2010. “Using Hypothetical Disaster Scenarios to Predict Evacuation Behavioral Response.” In Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board.
8.
ChengGuangxiang.2010. Dynamic Trip Distribution Models for Hurricane Evacuation.Louisiana State University.
9.
ChengGuangxiangWilmotChester G.BakerEarl J.. 2013. “Development of a Time-Dependent Disaggregate Hurricane Evacuation Destination Choice Model.” Natural Hazards Review14 (3): 163–74. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000107.
10.
ChorusCaspar G.2010. “A New Model of Random Regret Minimization.” EJTIR10 (10): 181–96. ISSN: 1567-7141.
11.
ChorusCaspar G.RoseJohn M.HensherDavid A.. 2013. “Regret Minimization or Utility Maximization: It Depends on the Attribute.” Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design40 (1): 154–69. https://doi.org/10.1068/b38092.
12.
CranenburghSander vanGuevaraCristian AngeloChorusCaspar G.. 2015. “New Insights on Random Regret Minimization Models.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice74: 91–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.01.008.
DekaDevajyotiCarnegieJon A.. 2010. “Analyzing Evacuation Behavior of Transportation-Disadvantaged Populations in Northern New Jersey.” In Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting. Washington, DC.
15.
DekaDevajyotiCarnegieJon A.. 2012. “Forecasting Shelter Accessibility and Vehicle Availability for Hurricane Evacuation in Northern New Jersey Using Sample Enumeration.” International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters30 (3): 275–300. https://doi.org/10.1177/028072701203000302.
ElliottJames RPaisJeremy. 2006. “Race, Class, and Hurricane Katrina: Social Differences in Human Responses to Disaster.” Social Science Research35 (2): 295–321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2006.02.003.
20.
FuHaoqiangWilmotChester G.. 2006. “Survival Analysis-Based Dynamic Travel Demand Models for Hurricane Evacuation.” Transportation Research Record1964: 211–18. https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198106196400123.
21.
FuHaoqiangWilmotChester G.BakerEarl J.. 2006. “Sequential Logit Dynamic Travel Demand Model and Its Transferability.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board1977 (January): 17–26. https://doi.org/10.3141/1977-05.
22.
GehlotHemantSadriArif MohaiminUkkusuriSatish V.. 2019. “Joint Modeling of Evacuation Departure and Travel Times in Hurricanes.” Transportation46: 2419–40. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-018-9958-4.
23.
GreeneWilliam H.2002. Econometric Analysis. 5th ed. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
24.
GreeneWilliam H.2012. NLOGIT Version 6 Reference Guide. Plainview, NY: Econometric Software, Inc.
25.
GudishalaRavindraWilmotChester G.. 2012. “Comparison of Time-Dependent Sequential Logit and Nested Logit for Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Demand.” Transportation Research Record2312: 134–40. https://doi.org/10.3141/2312-14.
26.
HasanSamiulMesa-ArangoRodrigoUkkusuriSatish V.. 2013. “A Random-Parameter Hazard-Based Model to Understand Household Evacuation Timing Behavior.” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies27 (February): 108–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2011.06.005.
27.
HeathRobert L.LeeJaesubPalencharMichael J.LemonLaura L.. 2018. “Risk Communication Emergency Response Preparedness: Contextual Assessment of the Protective Action Decision Model.” Risk Analysis38 (2): 333–44. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12845.
28.
HuangShih-KaiLindellMichael K.PraterCarla S.. 2017. “Multistage Model of Hurricane Evacuation Decision: Empirical Study of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.” Natural Hazards Review18 (3): 05016008. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000237.
29.
JingPengZhaoMengxuanHeMeilingChenLong. 2018. “Travel Mode and Travel Route Choice Behavior Based on Random Regret Minimization: A Systematic Review.” Sustainability (Switzerland)10 (4): 1185. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10041185.
LavrakasPaul J.2008. “Raking.” In Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods. Thousand Oaks, California. Sage Publications, Inc. 2008.
32.
LiJianOzbayKaanBartinBekirIyerShrisanCarnegieJon A.. 2013. “Empirical Evacuation Response Curve During Hurricane Irene in Cape May County, New Jersey.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board2376 (1): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.3141/2376-01.
33.
LindellMichael K.2018. “Communicating Imminent Risk.” In Handbook of Disaster Research, 449–77. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63254-4_22.
34.
LindellMichael K.KangJung EunPraterCarla S.. 2011. “The Logistics of Household Hurricane Evacuation.” Natural Hazards58 (3): 1093–109. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9715-x.
35.
LindellMichael K.LuJing-CheinPraterCarla S.. 2005. “Household Decision Making and Evacuation in Response to Hurricane Lili.” Natural Hazards Review6 (4): 171–79. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2005)6:4(171).
LindellMichael KPerryRonald W.. 2012. “The Protective Action Decision Model: Theoretical Modifications and Additional Evidence.” Risk Analysis32 (4): 616–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01647.x.
38.
LoomesGrahamSugdenRobert. 1982. “Regret Theory : An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice Under Uncertainty.” The Economic Journal92 (368): 805–24. https://doi.org/10.2307/2232669.
MarascoDavidMurray-TuitePamelaUkkusuriSatish V.LeeSeungyoonGeYue. 2019. “Multinomial Random Parameter Modeling of First Decisions Made by Households During the Approach of Hurricane Matthew.” In Natural Hazards Workshop Researchers Meeting. Broomfield, CO.
Mesa-ArangoRodrigoHasanSamiulUkkusuriSatish V.Murray-TuitePamela. 2013. “Household-Level Model for Hurricane Evacuation Destination Type Choice Using Hurricane Ivan Data.” Natural Hazards Review14 (1): 11–20. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000083.
MiletiDennis SSorensenJohn H.. 1990. “Communication of Emergency Public Warnings: A Social Science Perspective and State-of-the-Art Assessment.” https://doi.org/10.2172/6137387.
45.
NgMan WoDiazRafaelBehrJoshua. 2015. “Departure Time Choice Behavior for Hurricane Evacuation Planning: The Case of the Understudied Medically Fragile Population.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review77 (5): 215–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2015.03.002.
RadwanEMollaghasemiMMitchellStevenYildirimG, Contract Bd, and Ph D Candidate. 2005. “Framework for Modeling Emergency Evacuation.” Orlando. http://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=756740.
48.
ReynoldsBarbaraSeegerMatthew W.. 2005. “Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication as an Integrative Model.” Journal of Health Communication10 (1): 43–55. https://doi.org/10.1080/10810730590904571.
49.
RowanKatherine E.BotanCarl H.KrepsGary L.SamoilenkoSergeiFarnsworthKaren. 2010. “Risk Communication Education for Local Emergency Managers: Using the CAUSE Model for Research, Education, and Outreach.” Handbook of Risk and Crisis Communication, 168–91. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203891629-15.
50.
SadriArif MohaiminUkkusuriSatish V.Murray-TuitePamelaGladwinHugh. 2014. “Analysis of Hurricane Evacuee Mode Choice Behavior.” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies48 (11): 37–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2014.08.008.
51.
SampsonRobert J.1988. “Local Friendship Ties and Community Attachment in Mass Society: A Multilevel Systemic Model.” American Sociological Review53 (5): 766. https://doi.org/10.2307/2095822.
52.
SarwarMd TawfiqAnastasopoulosPanagiotis ChUkkusuriSatish V.Murray-TuitePamelaManneringFred L.. 2018. “A Statistical Analysis of the Dynamics of Household Hurricane-Evacuation Decisions.” Transportation45: 51–70. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-016-9722-6.
53.
SeegerMatthew W.2006. “Best Practices in Crisis Communication: An Expert Panel Process.” Journal of Applied Communication Research34 (3): 232–44. https://doi.org/10.1080/00909880600769944.
54.
SiebeneckLaura KCovaThomas J. 2008. “An Assessment of the Return-Entry Process for Hurricane Rita 2005.” International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters26 (2): 91–111. https://doi.org/10.1177/028072700802600202.
55.
SmithStanley KMcCartyChris. 2009. “Fleeing the Storm(s): An Examination of Evacuation Behavior During Florida’s 2004 Hurricane Season.” Demography46 (1): 127–45. https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0048.
56.
SorensenJohn H.MiletiDennis S.. 1988. “Warning and Evacuation: Answering Some Basic Questions.” Industrial Crisis Quarterly2 (3–4): 195–209. https://doi.org/10.1177/108602668800200302.
57.
StoughLaura M.KelmanIlan. 2018. “People with Disabilities and Disasters.” In Handbook of Disaster Research, edited by RodríguezHavidánDonnerWilliamTrainorJoseph E., 225–42. Springer, Cham.
58.
TrainKenneth.2002. Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation. Cambridge University Press.
59.
UrataJunjiPelAdam J.. 2018. “People’s Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning.” Risk Analysis38 (5): 889–905. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12931.
WangZeAnShiWangJianDingChuan. 2017. “Evacuation Travel Behavior in Regret Minimization or Utility Maximization Rules? Evidence from Emergency Context.” KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering21 (1): 440–46. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-016-0081-9.
64.
WhiteheadJohn C.2003. “One Million Dollars per Mile? The Opportunity Costs of Hurricane Evacuation.” Ocean and Coastal Management46 (11–12): 1069–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2003.11.001.
65.
WhiteheadJohn C.EdwardsBobVan WilligenMariekeMaioloJohn R.WilsonKenneth. 2001. “Hurricane Evacuation Behavior of Coastal North Carolina Residents During Bonnie, Dennis, and Floyd.” In Facing Our Future: Hurricane Floyd and Recovery in the Coastal Plain, edited by MaioloJohn R., 312. Coastal Carolina Pr.
66.
WhiteheadJohn C.EdwardsBobVan WilligenMariekeMaioloJohn R.WilsonKennethSmithKevin T. 2000. “Heading for Higher Ground: Factors Affecting Real and Hypothetical Hurricane Evacuation Behavior.” Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards2 (4): 133–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1464-2867(01)00013-4.
67.
WilmotChester GMeduriNandagopal. 2005. “Methodology to Establish Hurricane Evacuation Zones.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board1922 (1): 129–37. https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198105192200117.
68.
WilmotChester G.ModaliNaveenChenBin. 2006. Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Traffic: Testing the Gravity and Intervening Opportunity Models as Models of Destination Choice in Hurricane Evacuation (No. FHWA/LA.06/407).Baton Rouge, LA.
WongStephen D.PelAdam J.ShaheenSusan A.ChorusCaspar G.. 2020. “Fleeing from Hurricane Irma: Empirical Analysis of Evacuation Behavior Using Discrete Choice Theory.” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment79 (February): 102227. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.TRD.2020.102227.
71.
WongStephen D.ShaheenSusanWalkerJoan. 2018. “Understanding Evacuee Behavior: A Case Study of Hurricane Irma.” 2018. https://doi.org/10.7922/G2FJ2F00.
72.
WoodMichele M.MiletiDennis S.BeanHamiltonLiuBrooke F.SuttonJeannetteMaddenStephanie. 2018. “Milling and Public Warnings.” Environment and Behavior50 (5): 535–66. https://doi.org/10.1177/0013916517709561.
73.
WuHao-CheLindellMichael K.PraterCarla S.. 2012. “Logistics of Hurricane Evacuation in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.” Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour15 (4): 445–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2012.03.005.
74.
YinWeihaoMurray-TuitePamelaUkkusuriSatish V.GladwinHugh. 2014. “An Agent-Based Modeling System for Travel Demand Simulation for Hurricane Evacuation.” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies42: 44–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2014.02.015.
75.
YinWeihaoMurray-TuitePamelaUkkusuriSatish V.GladwinHugh. 2016. “Modeling Shadow Evacuation for Hurricanes with Random-Parameter Logit Model.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board2599 (6): 43–51. https://doi.org/10.3141/2599-06.
