Trend and Determinants of Fertility in a Declining Fertility Regime: A Study of Rural Uttar Pradesh

Abstract

This study is an attempt to examine the socio-economic and demographic differentials in children ever born and desire for additional child in rural Uttar Pradesh using the empirical data set. Two stage stratified random sampling procedure was applied to select the respondents from ten villages of rural Raebareli district. Total 460 women having with at least one child below ten years of age were interviewed during September 2016 to February 2017. Children ever born (CEB) and desire for another child were the main outcome variables of the study. One-way ANOVA and chi-square test were used in the bi-variate analysis. Poisson regression and logistic regression were used in multivariate analysis. The mean children ever born in the study area was 2.7 children per women and 64.7 per cent of fecund women who had two children and not currently pregnant had no desire for another child. Women’s education, economic status of the household, autonomy index and higher caste group were significantly negatively associated with the children ever born in the study area. The desire for another child was significantly higher among those who had only daughters (OR = 1.99; p < 0.01). In conclusion, more emphasis needs to be placed on messages conveyed through the mass media, addressing the benefits of small family size and family planning, and programs that focus on reduction in newborn mortality could also be considered, which would also help to reduce fertility.