This article discusses an examination of 90 Serious Incident Reports (SIRs) generated in the London Probation Area between January 2002 and July 2003. The results showed that offenders assessed as high risk generated a disproportionately high number of SIRs, but equally serious incidents occurred across all risk bands. Consequently, while probation staff were proficient in identifying those most likely to inflict harm, the analysis demonstrates the limitations of risk prediction, and the need for considerable skill and knowledge among staff who work with offenders of all risk bands. Another significant finding was that whereas past violent behaviour was a powerful predictor of future violence, relatively few of those accused of a sexual offence had previous sexual convictions.
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