The perception of insecurity and vote choice in national referendums: The case of Chile in 2022

Abstract

The perception of insecurity increasingly explains political behaviour in Latin American democracies. Since the literature on referendums underlines that people often vote motivated by issues not directly addressed in the ballot, we assess if the perception of insecurity impacted the vote choice in the September 2022 constitutional referendum in Chile. We hypothesise that those who perceive more insecurity punish the national government by voting against the ruling coalition’s preferred outcome. We use a national poll conducted before the 2022 constitutional referendum and find that moderates were more likely to vote against the government if they perceived more insecurity. Among those in the extreme ends of the ideological spectrum, the perception of insecurity has a more limited impact. As perceptions of insecurity increasingly impact vote choice in Latin American democracies, voters also use constitutional referendums as an opportunity to punish the government for issues that trigger popular discontent.