Double Jeopardy: Adaptive Social Protection for Venezuelans in Peru during the Pandemic

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many refugees and migrants were excluded from otherwise generous government emergency cash transfer programs. What were the consequences of this exclusion, and what does it reveal about designing adaptive social protection for forcibly displaced populations? This randomized study evaluates the impact of a one-time cash transfer to Venezuelan forced migrants in Peru. Using a baseline survey and follow-ups at one, three, and nine weeks post-transfer, the study measured outcomes related to income, spending, consumption, and health. One week after the transfer, income declined, while spending, consumption, and health improved. By week three, the negative impact on income persisted. By week nine, all effects had faded. Post hoc analysis suggests that the decline in income was driven by labor market withdrawal among men, older adults, and households with higher per capita expenses. Unlike other studies of pandemic-era cash transfers to native populations, we find negative labor effects—likely due to the unique urban conditions faced by displaced migrants. These findings contribute to the limited experimental evidence on cash transfers for forcibly displaced populations and offer insights for designing adaptive social protection in future emergencies.