High Confucian Familism Adherence but Low Fertility Intentions: Evidence From the Lowest Fertility Rate City in China

Abstract

Despite transitioning from a one-child policy (1979–2015) to a universal two-child policy in 2016 and a three-child policy in 2021, China’s birth rate has continued to decline. These policy changes, rooted in the assumption of high-fertility preferences influenced by Confucian familism, did not result in an anticipated increase in birth rates. Using a three-level policy design, this study estimates the impact of Confucian familism on fertility intention using instrumental variables. Data were drawn from the “Tianjin Citizen Fertility Willingness Survey” of the Tianjin Academy of Social Sciences (n = 655 women, aged 15–49). First, the results reveal that although Confucian ideals that encourage childbearing have been widely accepted; however, fertility intentions (i.e., the expected number of children) remain low. Second, despite controlling for fertility burdens and policy changes in the estimations, we observed that stronger adherence to Confucian familism does not significantly predict greater fertility intentions. However, such strong adherence may be associated with a greater willingness to have only one child. The results suggest that the inclination to have a single child, even under incentive-based birth policies, arises from an ultracompetitive society that lacks comprehensive social welfare guarantees.

Keywords

low birth rate family planning policy confucian familism indicator fertility intentions ultracompetitive society instrumental variables

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Ajzen

(1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50(2), 179–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(91)90020-T

Ajzen

Klobas

(2013). Fertility intentions: An approach based on the theory of planned behavior. Demographic Research, 29(8), 203–232. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.8

Anderson

Kohler

H.-P.

(2013). Education fever and the East Asian fertility puzzle: A case study of low fertility in South Korea. Asian Population Studies, 9(2), 196–215. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441730.2013.797293

Arpino

Pronzato

C. D.

Tavares

L. P.

(2014). The effect of grandparental support on mothers’ labour market participation: An instrumental variable approach. European Journal of Population, 30(4), 369–390. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-014-9319-8

Balbo

Billari

F. C.

Mills

(2013). Fertility in advanced societies: A review of research: La fécondité dans les sociétés avancées: Un examen des recherches. European Journal of Population = Revue Européenne de Demographie, 29(1), 1–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-012-9277-y

Becker

G. S.

(1992). A treatise on the family. Population and Development Review, 18(3), 563. https://doi.org/10.2307/1973663

Becker

G. S.

Tomes

(1976). Child endowments and the quantity and quality of children. Journal of Political Economy, 84(4, Part 2), S143–S162. https://doi.org/10.1086/260536

Beijing Youth Daily . (2022). Improve supporting measures for the three-child birth policy many deputies and members of the National People’s Congress suggested suggestions. (‘完善三孩生育政策配套措施多位代表委员建言献策’) (March 06, 2022). Beijing Youth Daily. https://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2022/0306/c1004-32367490.html

Chang

K. S.

(2010). South Korea under compressed modernity: Familial political economy in transition. Routledge.

10.

Chen

Peng

Liao

Dai

Zhao

(2020). Can quantitative easing population policy rescue china’s sinking fertility rate? A comparative examination between Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Cybergeo: European Journal of Geography, (973). https://doi.org/10.4000/cybergeo.34066

11.

China Business Network . (2021). Middle-aged individuals more inclined to have a third child? Nationwide surveys on the willingness to have à third child conducted in various regions (‘中年人更愿意生三孩?全国多地开展三孩生育意愿查’). China Business Network. Retrieved June 24, 2021, from. https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2021/06-24/9506005.shtml

12.

Coleman

(1996). New patterns and trends in European fertility: International and subnational comparisons. In Coleman

(Ed.), Europe’s population in the 1990s. Oxford University Press.

13.

Duan

Chen

(2022). Fertility by parity in China in the context of changing fertility policy. International Journal of Population Studies, 8(1), 88–106. https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i1.348

14.

Easterlin

R. A.

(1978). What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure. Demography, 15(4), 397–432. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061197

15.

Freedman

D. S.

Thornton

A. D.

(1980). Changes in fertility expectations and preferences between 1962 and 1977: Their relation to final parity. Demography, 17(4), 365–378. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061151

16.

Goldstein

Lutz

Testa

M. R.

(2003). The emergence of sub-replacement family size ideals in Europe. Population Research and Policy Review, 22(5/6), 479–496. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:POPU.0000020962.80895.4a

17.

Guo

Zhang

Xie

Jin

(2021). Predicting the population growth and structure of China based on grey fractional-order models. Journal of Mathematics, 2021, 1–11, 7725125. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/7725125

18.

Chen

Cai

Zheng

(2015). Do parents matter? Intergenerational ties and fertility preferences in a low-fertility context. Chinese Journal of Sociology, 1(4), 485–514. https://doi.org/10.1177/2057150X15614545

19.

Wang

Liu

Zheng

(2020). Young women’s fertility intentions and the emerging bilateral family system under China’s two-child family planning policy. The China Review, 20(2), 113–141. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26915623?utm_source=chatgpt.com

20.

Zheng

(2018). Understanding Chinese fertility from a gender and development perspective(‘研究社会性别和发展视角下的中国低生育率’). Social Sciences in China, 39(2), 143–161.

21.

Jiang

Sánchez-Barricarte

J. J.

(2016). Fertility intention, son preference, and second childbirth: Survey findings from Shaanxi Province of China. Social Indicators Research, 125(3), 935–953. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-015-0875-z

22.

Kan

M.-Y.

Hertog

(2017). Domestic division of labour and fertility preference in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Demographic Research, 36(18), 557–588. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2017.36.18

23.

Knodel

Van de Walle

(1979). Lessons from the past: Policy implications of historical fertility studies. Population and Development Review, 5(2), 217–245. https://doi.org/10.2307/1971824

24.

Kolk

(2015). The causal effect of an additional sibling on completed fertility: An estimation of intergenerational fertility correlations by looking at siblings of twins. Demographic Research, 32(51), 1409–1420. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.51

25.

Lesthaeghe

(2010). The unfolding story of the second demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 36(2), 211–251. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x

26.

Lesthaeghe

(2014). The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(51), 18112–18115. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1420441111

27.

Lesthaeghe

(2020). The second demographic transition, 1986–2020: Sub-replacement fertility and rising cohabitation—A global update. Genus, 76(1), 1–38. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-020-00077-4

28.

Logan

Xiao

Anazodo

(2019). Infertility in China: Culture, society and a need for fertility counselling. Asian Pacific Journal of Reproduction, 8(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.4103/2305-0500.250416

29.

Lyle

K. C. I.

(1980). Planned birth in Tianjin. The China Quarterly, 83, 551–567. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305741000012960

30.

McDonald

(2009). Explanations of low fertility in East Asia. In Jones

Straughan

P. T.

Chan

(Eds.), Ultra-low fertility in Pacific Asia: Trends, causes and policy issues (pp. 23–39). Routledge.

31.

Miller

W. B.

(1994). Childbearing motivations, desires, and intentions: A theoretical framework. Genetic, Social, and General Psychology Monographs, 120(2), 223–258.

32.

Miller

W. B.

Pasta

D. J.

(1993). Motivational and nonmotivational determinants of child-number desires. Population and Environment, 15(2), 113–138. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02209405

33.

Miller

W. B.

Severy

L. J.

Pasta

D. J.

(2004). A framework for modelling fertility motivation in couples. Population Studies, 58(2), 193–205. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472042000213712

34.

Morgan

S. P.

Zhigang

Hayford

S. R.

(2009). China’s below‐replacement fertility: Recent trends and future prospects. Population and Development Review, 35(3), 605–629. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00298.x

35.

Mustillo

Wang

(2021). Parent work‐to‐family conflict and child psychological well‐being: Moderating role of grandparent coresidence. Journal of Marriage and Family, 83(1), 27–39. https://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12703

36.

Myong

Park

(2021). Social norms and fertility. Journal of the European Economic Association, 19(5), 2429–2466. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvaa048

37.

Park

I. H.

Cho

L.-J.

(1995). Confucianism and the Korean family. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 26(1), 117–134. https://doi.org/10.3138/jcfs.26.1.117

38.

Ryder

N. B.

Westoff

C. F.

(1969). Relationships, and ideal family size, United States, 1965. United States Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Public Health Service-National Institutes of Health – National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Center for Population Research.

39.

Schoen

Astone

N. M.

Kim

Y. J.

Nathanson

C. A.

Fields

J. M.

(1999). Do fertility intentions affect fertility behavior? Journal of Marriage and Family, 61(3), 790–799. https://doi.org/10.2307/353578

40.

Su‐Russell

Sanner

(2023). Chinese childbearing decision‐making in mainland China in the post‐one‐child‐policy era. Family Process, 62(1), 302–318. https://doi.org/10.1111/famp.12772

41.

Suzuki

(2006). Lowest-low fertility and governmental actions in Japan. Discussion Paper 294, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, 294.

42.

Suzuki

(2013). Low fertility and population aging in Japan and Eastern Asia (pp. 1–87). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54780-8_1

43.

Tang

(1995). Confucianism, Chinese culture, and reproductive behavior. Population and Environment, 16(3), 269–284. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02331921

44.

Thomson

(1997). Couple childbearing desires, intentions, and births. Demography, 34(3), 343–354. https://doi.org/10.2307/3038288

45.

Tianjin Municipal Health Commission . (2009). Tianjin 30 years – Celebrating the 60th anniversary of the founding of the people’s Republic of China. (‘天津人口发展30年——庆祝中华人民共和国成立60周年’). https://wsjk.tj.gov.cn/XWZX6600/YQFKDT1752/202008/t20200829_3599429.html

46.

Vollset

S. E.

Goren

Yuan

C.-W.

Cao

Smith

A. E.

Hsiao

Bisignano

Azhar

G. S.

Castro

Chalek

Dolgert

A. J.

Frank

Fukutaki

Hay

S. I.

Lozano

Mokdad

A. H.

Nandakumar

Pierce

Pletcher

Zlavog

B. S.

(2020). Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: A forecasting analysis for the global burden of disease study. Lancet (London, England), 396(10258), 1285–1306. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2

47.

Wang

Sun

(2020). Fertility choices in China under the two-child policy. International Sociology, 35(3), 284–311. https://doi.org/10.1177/0268580920905465

48.

Wang

T. W. C. Z. Y.

Wang

Zhou

Luo

(2019). Fertility intentions for a second child among urban working women with one child in Hunan Province, China: A cross-sectional study. Public Health, 173, 21–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2019.05.006

49.

Watkins

S. C.

(1990). From local to national communities: The transformation of demographic regimes in Western Europe, 1870–1960. Population and Development Review, 16(2), 241–272. https://doi.org/10.2307/1971590

50.

Westoff

C. F.

Ryder

N. B.

(1977). The predictive validity of reproductive intentions. Demography, 14(4), 431–453. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060589

51.

(2023). Analysis of the birth rate and its influencing factors in China. Journal of Education, Humanities and Social Sciences, 16, 215–222. https://doi.org/10.54097/ehss.v16i.9764

52.

Yang

Guo

Cao

(2022a). What structural factors have held back China’s birth rate? Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26(1), 565–578. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02723-7

53.

Yang

Jiang

Sánchez-Barricarte

J. J.

(2022). China’s fertility change: An analysis with multiple measures. Population Health Metrics, 20(1), 12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-022-00290-7

54.

Yang

Rosenblatt

P. C.

(2008). Confucian familism and childless couples in South Korea. Journal of Family Issues, 29(5), 571–591. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192513X07309462

55.

Zhou

Xie

(2021). Macrolevel social factors and ideal number of children in China(‘中国居民理想子女数量的宏观影响因素’). Population Research, 45(1), 45–61.

56.

Zaidi

Morgan

S. P.

(2017). The second demographic transition theory: A review and appraisal. Annual Review of Sociology, 43(1), 473–492. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-060116-053442

57.

Zhai

Jin

(2023). China’s family planning policy and fertility transition. Chinese Journal of Sociology, 9(4), 479–496. https://doi.org/10.1177/2057150X231205773

58.

Zhang

Liu

Lummaa

(2022). Intention to have a second child, family support and actual fertility behavior in current China: An evolutionary perspective. American Journal of Human Biology: The Official Journal of the Human Biology Council, 34(4), Article e23669. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajhb.23669

59.

Zhang

Wang

(2015). A research on the second childbirth expectation and the birth plan for the fertility age population of Chinese (‘中国育齢人群二孩生育意愿与生育計画研究’). Population and Economics, 6, 43–51.

60.

Zhang

Liu

Wang

Zhou

Wang

(2022b). Effects of incentive-based population policies on sustainability of China’s recent maternity insurance system reform: A system dynamics simulation. Health Research Policy and Systems, 20(1), 140. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12961-022-00945-9

61.

Zheng

(2014). Measurement and application of fertility intention (‘生育意愿的测量与应用’). Chinese Journal of Population Science, 36(6), 15–25.

Supplementary Material

Please find the following supplemental material available below.

For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.

For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.

0.00 MB

0.83 MB