Returning home to politics: The political determinants of ousted leaders’ trajectories after exile

Abstract

Exile has traditionally been treated as a permanent removal from domestic politics. Yet many deposed leaders seek exile abroad and later re-enter politics after returning home. This study asks under what conditions exiled leaders can regain political power, focusing on their ability to return home as a crucial step in this process. It argues that the nature of power loss – coup or popular uprising – shapes the prospects for return to the home country. By anchoring the analysis in the concrete process of returning home, the study refines our understanding of how different modes of ouster influence post-tenure trajectories. Using data from 101 leaders exiled between 1970 and 2020, the study tests its theoretical expectations through quantitative analyses and case studies. The findings reveal that leaders ousted in coups are far more likely to return, highlighting the political logic linking the mode of power loss, repatriation and post-exile political re-engagement.