The economic vote when there is no ruling party presidential candidate: Chile in 2021

Abstract

What impact does the economic vote have when the incumbent party candidate loses in the first-round vote and the candidates in the runoff are both opponents of the outgoing government but ideologically opposed to each other? Using two surveys from shortly before the first- and second-round presidential elections in Chile in 2021, respectively, we assess the impact of socio- and ego-tropic economic perceptions on the vote choice for extreme right candidate José Kast and left candidate Gabriel Boric. Ideological and sociodemographic variables had a greater impact than economic perceptions in both rounds. However, economic perceptions have stronger explanatory power in the runoff than in the first round. Those with more positive current views were more likely to vote for the outgoing government candidate in the first-round vote. Economic perceptions have a more elastic effect among centrists and those not ideologically identified than among those strongly aligned with the left or right.