Why Russia invaded Ukraine and how wars benefit autocrats: The domestic sources of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Abstract

Contrary to Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical arguments, there was little chance that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would benefit Russia’s position in the European balance of power and enhance its overall security. Instead, I argue that Putin’s decision was based on domestic interests, mainly the regime’s legitimation, a major pillar of authoritarian stability. Using a multi-method research design, I demonstrate that the war has significant potential to boost Putin’s popularity, nationalism and authoritarian preferences in society, as well as to strengthen his image as the country’s heroic protector. As in several autocracies, the instrumentalization of security concerns and existential threats are a powerful source of regime cohesion. These arguments are corroborated by data from Russia’s current and previous conflicts, such as elites’ discourse, analysis of repressive policies, and public opinion polls on Putin’s rule and authoritarian preferences. The regime needs a hostile ‘West’ and a threatening Ukraine for self-legitimation.