Although state failure has assumed considerable importance in the post-cold-war world, attempts to predict its occurrence statistically have not been very successful. Such attempts rely on off-the-shelf data collected for other purposes. To predict state failure, we need data more specific to the problem. A better body of theory is required to identify causal patterns, and case studies are a promising way to proceed. Case studies of paradigmatic state failures in Somalia and Afghanistan suggest a pattern: rulers attack the state apparatus in order to prevent opposition by the bureaucracy and military, precipitating the collapse of the state.
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