An informal short-term investigation of manpower fore casting (at a national level) in professions and fields other than information science was undertaken for the British Library R&D Department (BLRDD). The aim was to exam ine the strategies, methodologies, data gathering practises and typical inputs to other manpower forecasting systems and models, which could be applicable in the library/information field.
A serious attempt to come to grips with forecasting and supply and demand ratio balance is obviously necessary in the U.K. in this field. Over-supply of library/information workers in a period of economic stringency; organisational marginality of the profession from the viewpoint of many employers; consequences of over-optismistic forecasting of future demand during the prosperous late 60's, all underline this need.
The two rather different disciplines of national UK economic and labour force "prediction" and of company manpower planning are outside the scope of this study. Total labour force projections do have relevance as influences on, and scenarios for, the library scene. Company manpower planning would obviously become relevant at the implement ation stage of any emergent national policies for library/ information manpower. This paper is primarily concerned with the secondary level of manpower planning and forecast ing - for specific occupations or industries, on a nation-wide basis.
Items concerning the library/information field are marked with an asterisk. All other items are general in coverage, or refer to specific other occupations. Some items on the company manpower level have been included, but only in cases where content also had wider interest.
2.
American Chemical Society, How to make a technology assessment, Impact of Science on Society28(2) 145; Chemical Engineering News (28 March 1977).
3.
D.J. Bartholomew and B.R. Morris (Eds.), Aspects of Manpower Planning: a Volume of Papers Published for the Manpower Society (London, English Universities Press, 1971).
4.
D.J. Bartholomew , Manpower planning literature: statistical techniques of manpower analysis, Dept. of Employment Gazette (October 1977) 1093-1096.
* R.L. Burr , Librarians, libraries and librarianship: a model . Libri23(3) (1973) 181-209.
10.
Civil ServiceDepartment, A management guide to manpower planning models (HMSO, London, 1975).
11.
A. Debons, A survey of manpower requirements for scientific and technical communication (University of Pittsburgh, ongoing research, completion date expected June 1979)
12.
Department of Education and Science, Census of staff in librarianship and information work in the United Kingdom 1976 (1978, Also earlier published census of 1972).
13.
Department of Education and Science, Library staff census 1976, DES Statistical Bulletin 6 (1978).
14.
Department of Education and Science, School population in the 1980s, DES Report on Education 92 ( 1978).
15.
Department of Education and Science, Statistics of education, Vol. 4, Teachers (HMSO, London, Annual; use latest edition).
16.
Department of Education and Science, Teachers for the 1980s: statistical projections and calculations, DES Report on Education 82 (Man 1975).
17.
Department of Education and Science, Teacher turnover, DES Report on Education 79 (1974).
18.
Departement of Health and Social Security, Manpower and training for the social services (HMSO, London, 1976).
19.
Department of Health and Social Security, Medical manpower — the next twenty years: a discussion paper (HMSO, London1978).
20.
Department of Health and Social Security, The way forward: priorities in the health and social services ( HMSO, London, 1977).
21.
J. Dyer et al., A framework for the study of work settings , Management Sci.24(13) (1978) 1393-1403.
* A.P.J. Edwards, A national survey of staff employed on scientific and technical information work, J. Doc.22(3) (1966) 210-244.
24.
N.W. Elbert and W.J. Kehoe, How to bridge fact and theory in manpower planning, Personnel53(6) (1976) 31-39.
25.
A.F. Forbes et al., Manpower planning models in use in the Civil Service Department, Personnel Review4(3) (1975) 23-35.
26.
H. Gibson, Rules of thumb for manpower decisions, Manpower Society Report No. 3 (May 1977).
27.
H. Gabora and L. Plunkett, A process for designing a manpower planning system, Business Quart.42(1) (1977) 44-51.
28.
J.J. Glen , Length of service distributions in Markov manpower models, Operational Research Quarterly28(4) (1977) 975-82.
29.
A.B. Gupta et al. Trends in manpower needs in information science from 1967 to 1982, J. Amer. Soc. Information Sci.25(1) ( 1974) 33-43.
30.
J.L. Lacobelli and J.P. Muczyk, An industry-occupational forecast incorporating technological change for local/regional manpower planning, Academy of Management Rev.1(2) (1976) 121-26.
31.
Institute of Manpower Studies, Annual Report 1977/ 78 (The Institute, Brighton, 1978).
32.
Institute of Manpower Studies, Education and employment - selected statistics 1966-1977 ( Hobson's Press, 1978).
33.
H. Kahalas and D.A. Gray, A quantitative model for manpower decision making, Omega4(6) (1976) 685-697.
34.
* S. Keith , Sharp rise in jobless: survey of students completing their courses - 1969-70 to 1975-76, Library Assoc. Record79(11) ( 1977) 638-639.
35.
R.J. Kendal , Selecting the right people, Aslib Proc.28(11-12) (1976) 370-375.
36.
* M. Kingsbury , Education for school librarianship: expectation vs, reality, J. Education for Librarianship15(4) (1975) 251-257.
37.
* S. Klement , Draft proposal: a graduate course on alternatives in librarianship, Canadian Lib. J.34(2) (1977) 131-134.
38.
N.K. Kwak et al., Stochastic model of demand forecasting for technical manpower planning. Management Sci.23(10) (1977) 1089-1098.
39.
Lancaster, F.W. , Whither libraries? or, Wither libraries, College and Research Libs 39(5) (1978) 345-357.
40.
Library Association Commission on the supply of and demand for qualified librarians ( LA, London, 1977).
41.
R. Lindley (Ed.), Britain's Medium-Term Employment Prospects (Warwick University, Manpower Research Group, 1978).
42.
Local Authorities Management Services and Computer Committee, The staffing of public libraries (LAMSAC, 1974).
43.
S. McClean and T. Abodunde, Entropy as a measure of stability in a manpower system, J. Res. Soc.29(9) ( 1978) 885-889.
44.
K. McCormick , The political context of manpower forecasting in Britain, British J. Industrial Relations15(3) (1977) 403-413.
45.
J.D. Mace and S.M. Taylor, The demand for engineers in British industry: some implications for manpower forecasting, British J. Industrial Relations13(2) (1975) 175-193.
46.
Manpower Services Commission, Grouping of skills (1975).
47.
Manpower Services Commission, Towards a comprehensive manpower policy (1977).
48.
Manpower Services Commission, Training for skills: a programme for action (1977).
49.
Manpower Services Commission (Training Services Division), The provision of compatable manpower statistics (1978) 12pp. (Unpublished, available on request: guidelines for manpower forecasting input.)
50.
Manpower Society, Improving manpower information: report of Joint DE/Manpower Society Working Party, Manpower Society Report 1 (1974).
51.
A. Maynard and A. Walker, Doctor manpower 1975-2000: alternative forecasts and their resource implications: a report for the Royal Commission on the NHS, Royal Commission on the NHS, Research Paper 4 (HMSO, London, 1978).
52.
* N. Moore , Library manpower planning: a decade of progress , J. Librarianship10(3) (1978) 162-169.
53.
N. Moore , Manpower forecasting, Library Assoc. Record76(10) (1974) 205-207.
54.
N. Moore, Manpower planning in libraries, Library Assoc. Management Pamphlets (1979).
55.
P. Moya-Angeler , A model with shortage of places for education and manpower systems, Omega4(6) (1976) 719-730.
56.
* K. Musmann , Will there be a role for librarians and libraries in the post-industrial society?, Libri28(3) (1978) 228-234.
57.
National Health Service, The recruitment and career development of administrators: a consultative document (DHSS, London, 1978).
58.
K. Ollerenshaw , Report of the research project: returning to teaching, Lancaster University, Dept. of Educational Research (December 1973).
59.
C.V. Penna et al., National Library and Information Services: a Handbook for Planners (Butterworths, London, 1977).
Pharmaceutical Society, Why there is anxiety over manpower, Pharmaceutical J.221 (5997) (November 18, 1978) 451-452. (Leading article.)
64.
W. Prentice , Computing graduate job prospects, New Scientist62 (896) (2 May 1974) 238-239.
65.
Public library staff establishment and grading census, Library Assoc. Record80(4) (April 1978) 150-151.
66.
N. Radford , Education for librarianship and the manpower problem, Australian Library J.27 (13) (August 4, 1978) 197-202.
67.
* H. Schur and W.L. Saunders, Education and training for scientific and technological library and information work (HMSO, London, 1968).
68.
Science Policy Research Unit, Annual report 1977 and report on the future of SPRU (SPRU, Brighton, 1978).
69.
* S. Sergean , Librarianship and information work: job characteristics and staffing needs, BLRD Report5321 (1977).
70.
M. Slater , Career patterns and mobility in the library/ information field. Aslib Proc.30(10-11) (1978) 344-51.
71.
M. Slater, Career patterns and the occupational image. (Aslib, London, in press 1979.)
72.
A.R. Smith, (Ed.), Manpower planning in the Civil Service, Civil Service Studies 3 ( HMSO, London, 1976).
73.
M. Thakur, Manpower planning in action, IPM Information Report 19 ( Institute of Personnel Management, London, 1975).
74.
C. Townsend and M. Freshwater, Manpower mobility and the grouping of skills, Personnel Management, 10(6) (1978) 36-39.
75.
R. Valliant and G. Milkovich, Comparison of semi-Markov and Markov models in a personnel forecasting application, Decision Sciences8(2) ( 1977) 465-477.
76.
P.C.G. Vassiliou , A Markov chain model for wastage in manpower system, Op. Res. Quart.27(1) (1976) 57-70.
77.
* P.L. Ward , Women and librarianship in 1975, Library Assoc. Record77(4) (1975) 82-83.
78.
R. Wery, Manpower forecasting and the labour market, International Labour Rev.117(3) (1978) 331-342.
