An Introduction to Bayesian Hypothesis Testing for Management Research

Abstract

In management research, empirical data are often analyzed using p-value null hypothesis significance testing (pNHST). Here we outline the conceptual and practical advantages of an alternative analysis method: Bayesian hypothesis testing and model selection using the Bayes factor. In contrast to pNHST, Bayes factors allow researchers to quantify evidence in favor of the null hypothesis. Also, Bayes factors do not require adjustment for the intention with which the data were collected. The use of Bayes factors is demonstrated through an extended example for hierarchical regression based on the design of an experiment recently published in the Journal of Management. This example also highlights the fact that p values overestimate the evidence against the null hypothesis, misleading researchers into believing that their findings are more reliable than is warranted by the data.