Models of adaptive calibration provide an overarching theoretical framework for understanding the developmental roots of psychological and behavioral outcomes in adulthood. An adaptive calibration framework was used to examine an important dimension of motivation: goal timing. Across two studies, we saw mixed support for the hypothesis that unpredictability experienced in childhood would be negatively associated with the time horizons people use to set their goals, such that people who reported experiencing more unpredictability in their childhood tended to set goals on relatively shorter time horizons. The association was observed based on independent ratings of goal timing, but not based on participants’ self-reported ratings of goal timing, and was statistically mediated by people’s tendency to consider the short- versus long-term future consequences of their actions. These studies isolate a key component of childhood adversity—unpredictability—potentially underlying the time horizons people use to set, prioritize, and pursue their goals.
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