Wind Energy in the UK and Europe: How Much,How Fast?

Abstract

The remarkable developments in wind energy technology during the 1980s have raised the prospect of wind energy as a serious power source for electricity grid supplies. Europe is in the forefront of both manufacturing and deployment. This paper outlines the path of developments, and discusses how much wind energy may be expected in the European community in the long term, and how rapidly this might develop in practice.

It is argued that “how much” is unknowable in any detail, because it depends upon essentially subjective assumptions about siting restrictions. On the most pessimistic siting and economic projections, it could be a minor component in a few countries, 'though even this would represent a substantial industry. However, the scenarios outlined suggest that wind is likely to be of some importance — 2-10% of electricity supplies — in many European countries within the next couple of decades, and that it could be of great importance — 10-40% of electricity supplies — in a few.

The main constraints on development rate are not technical, but are more concerned with judgement when there is still much to be learned, and with institutional issues. However, it seems certain that the European Community market in the late 1990s will be several hundred MW; it could be several thousand.

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