This article focuses on school-leavers who enter employment with a temporary contract in the European context, and examines their probabilities to shift to standard employment or unemployment, and their chances of occupational mobility afterwards. The authors argue that two institutional dimensions of insider–outsider segmentation drive the career progression after a flexible entry: the gap between the regulation of permanent and temporary contracts and the degree of unionization. The analyses show that a disproportionate protection of permanent compared to temporary contracts increases the probability of remaining on a fixed-term contract, whereas the degree of unionization slightly decreases the chance of moving to jobs with higher or lower socio-economic status. Finally, a shift to permanent employment after a fixed-term entry is more often associated with occupational upward mobility in strongly rather than weakly unionized labour markets.
AiCNortonEC (2003) Interaction terms in logit and probit models. Economics Letters80: 123–129.
2.
AtkinsonJ (1984) Manpower strategies for flexible organisations. Personnel Management16(8): 28–31.
3.
AutorDKerrWRKuglerAD (2007) Does employment protection reduce productivity? Evidence from US states. Economic Journal117(521): F189–F217.
4.
BarbieriP (2009) Flexible employment and inequality in Europe. European Sociological Review25(6): 621–628.
5.
BarbieriPCutuliG (2015) Employment protection legislation, labour market dualism and inequalities in Europe. European Sociological Review. Epub ahead of print.
6.
BarbieriPSchererS (2009) Labour market flexibilisation and its consequences in Italy. European Sociological Review25(6): 677–692.
7.
BeckerGS (1962) Investment in human capital: A theoretic analysis. Part 2: Investing in Human Beings. Journal of Political Economy70(5): 9–49.
8.
BertolaGRogersonR (1997) Institutions and labour reallocation. European Economic Review41(6): 1147–1171.
9.
BlossfeldHPBuchholzSBukodiEKurzK (eds) (2008) Young Workers, Globalization and the Labor Market: Comparing Early Working Life in Eleven Countries. Cheltenham and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.
10.
BöckermanPIlmakunnasPJohanssonE (2011) Job security and employee well-being: Evidence from matched survey and register data. Labour Economics18(4): 547–554.
11.
BoeriTvan OursJ (2008) The Economics of Imperfect Labor Markets. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
12.
BoothAFrancesconiMFrankJ (2002) Temporary jobs: Stepping stones or dead ends?The Economic Journal112: 189–213.
13.
BuisML (2010) Stata tip 87: Interpretation of interactions in non-linear models. The Stata Journal10(2): 305–308.
14.
BusemeyerMR (2009) Asset specificity, institutional complementarities and the varieties of skill regimes in coordinated market economies. Socio-Economic Review7(3): 375–406.
15.
CahucPPostel-VinayF (2002) Temporary jobs, employment protection and labor market performance. Labour Economics9(1): 63–91.
16.
CentenoMNovoA (2012) Excess worker turnover and fixed-term contracts: Causal evidence in a two-tier system. Labour Economics19(3): 320–328.
17.
CutuliGGuettoR (2013) Fixed-term contracts, economic conjuncture and training opportunities: A comparative analysis across European labour markets. European Sociological Review29(3): 616–629.
18.
de LangeMGesthuizenMWolbersMHJ (2013) Consequences of flexible labour market entry for early career development in the Netherlands. Economic and Industrial Democracy35(3): 413–434.
19.
DiPreteT (2005) Labour markets, inequality and change: A European perspective. Work and Occupations32(2): 119–139.
20.
DoeringerPBPioreMJ (1985). Internal Labor Markets and Manpower Analysis. Armonk, NY and London: M.E. Sharpe.
21.
EichhorstWMarxP (2012) Whatever works: Dualization and the service economy in Bismarckian welfare states. In: EmmeneggerPHäusermannSPalierBSeeleib-KaiserM (eds) The Age of Dualization: The Changing Face of Inequality in Deindustrializing Societies. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 73–99.
22.
Eurostat (2012) EU-LFS AHM 2009 Evaluation Report, LFS Ad-Hoc Module Entry of Young People into the Labour Market, Eurostat Directorate F, Unit F-5. Brussels.
23.
GanzeboomHBGde GraafPMTreimanDJ (1992) A standard international socio-economic index of occupational status. Social Science Research21(1): 1–56.
24.
GashVMcGinnityF (2006) Fixed-term contracts – the new European inequality? Comparing men and women in West Germany and France. Socio-Economic Review5(3): 467–496.
25.
GebelM (2010) Early career consequences of temporary employment in Germany and UK. Work, Employment and Society24(4): 641–660.
26.
GieseckeJGroßM (2003) Temporary employment: Chance or risk?European Sociological Review19(2): 161–177.
27.
HallPASoskiceD (2001) Varieties of Capitalism: The Institutional Foundations of Comparative Advantage. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.
28.
HippLBernhardtJAllmendingerJ (2015) Institutions and the prevalence of nonstandard employment. Socio-Economic Review. Epub ahead of print. DOI: 10.93/ser(mwv002).
29.
HymanR (2001) Trade union research and cross-national comparison. European Journal of Industrial Relations7(2): 203–233.
30.
KallebergAL (2003) Flexible firms and labor market segmentation effects of workplace restructuring on jobs and workers. Work and Occupations30(2): 154–175.
31.
KallebergALReskinBFHudsonK (2000) Bad jobs in America: Standard and non-standard employment relations and job quality in the United States. American Sociological Review65(2): 256–278.
32.
LindbeckASnowerD (1989) The Insider–Outsider Theory of Employment and Unemployment. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
33.
McGinnityFMertensAGundertS (2005) A bad start? Fixed-term contracts and the transition from education to work in West Germany. European Sociological Review21(4): 359–374.
34.
MaurinEPostel-VinayF (2005) The European job security gap. Work and Occupations32(2): 229–252.
35.
PiazzaJA (2005) Globalizing quiescence: Globalization, union density and strikes in 15 industrialized countries. Economic and Industrial Democracy26(2): 289–314.
36.
PolaviejaJG (2003) Temporary contracts and labour market segmentation in Spain: An employment rent approach. European Sociological Review19(5): 501–517.
37.
ReginiM (2000) Between deregulation and social pacts: The response of European economies to globalisation. Politics and Society28(1): 5–33.
38.
ReillyPA (1998) Balancing flexibility: Meeting the interests of employer and employees. European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology7(1): 7–22.
39.
RuberyJ (1989) Precarious forms of work in the United Kingdom. In: RodgersGRodgersJ (eds) Precarious Jobs in Labour Market Regulation: The Growth of Atypical Employment in Western Europe. Geneva: International Labour Organization, pp. 49–74.
40.
RuedaD (2005) Insider–outsider politics in industrialized democracies: The challenge to social democratic parties. American Political Science Review99(1): 61–74.
41.
SalvatoriA (2010) Labour contract regulations and workers’ wellbeing: International longitudinal evidence. Labour Economics17(4): 667–678.
42.
ScarpettaSSonnetAManfrediT (2010) Rising youth unemployment during the crisis: How to prevent negative long-term consequences on a generation?OECD Social, Employment and Migration. Working Papers, No. 106, OECD Publishing.
43.
SchererS (2004) Stepping-stones or traps? The consequences of labour market entry positions on future career in West Germany, Great Britain and Italy. Work, Employment and Society18(2): 369–394.
44.
SpenceMA (1973) Job market signalling. Quarterly Journal of Economics87(3): 355–374.
45.
SteijnBNeedAGesthuizenM (2006) Well begun, half done? Long-term effects of labour market entry in the Netherlands, 1950–2000. Work, Employment and Society20(3): 453–472.
46.
SullivanR (2009) Density matters: The union density bias and its implications for labor movement revitalization. Mobilization: An International Quarterly14(2): 239–260.
47.
VisserJ (1992) The strength of union movements in advanced capital economies: Social and organisational variations. In: ReginiM (ed.) The Future of Labour Movements. London: Sage, pp. 17–52.
48.
WingerterC (2011) Questionnaire design and measurement error in the German LFS Ad Hoc Module 2009 on the Entry of Young People into the Labour Market. German Federal Statistical Office.
