This paper investigates the risk of projected post-2050s overheating in existing, retrofitted and new-build dwellings in the United Kingdom. As shown in the previous research, passive measures may not be sufficient in mitigating overheating risk. Therefore, mechanical cooling technologies that may be deployed to ‘adapt’ to a warming climate are tested for energy and CO2 implications. For retrofits, heating demand is projected to remain dominant, whereas in post-2016 new-build, greater cooling system efficiency will be important. Thermal mass is shown to reduce future cooling load. The heat recovery element of mechanical ventilation with heat recovery may be rendered unnecessary in super-efficient homes. Ceiling fans coupled with natural ventilation may be sufficient in providing thermal comfort in the north of England. Ultimately, not planning for future overheating and cooling systems could create a new performance gap in design, construction and occupant behaviour.
Practical application: Overheating, already experienced in dwellings throughout the United Kingdom and projected to increase in occurrence, should be considered in all new design and retrofit. Dwellings designed to meet thermal comfort performance targets may be at risk of non-compliance as a result of a warming climate. Furthermore, dwellings designed to meet energy performance targets may be at risk of non-compliance as a result of potential need for cooling systems. The findings have implications for policy-making in relation to decarbonisation of the electricity grid, implementation of the Green Deal and upgrading building regulations to future-proof new and existing housing against a warming climate.
ButeraF. Climatic change and the built environment. Adv Build Energy Res2010; 4: 45–75.
2.
University of Oxford. Home truths: A low-carbon strategy to reduce UK housing emissions 80% by 2050, Oxford: University of Oxford, 2007.
3.
CollinsLNatarajanSLevermoreG. Climate change and future energy consumption in UK housing stock. Build Serv Eng Res Technol2010; 31(1): 75–90.
4.
LomasKJiY. Resilience of naturally ventilated buildings to climate change: Advanced natural ventilation and hospital wards. Energy Build2009; 41: 629–653.
5.
TillsonAOreszczynTPalmerJ. Assessing impacts of summertime overheating: Some adaptation strategies. Build Res Inform2013; 41(6): 652–661.
6.
LomasKKaneT. Summertime temperatures and thermal comfort in UK homes. Build Res Inform2013; 41(3): 259–280.
7.
GuptaRGreggM. Preventing the overheating of English suburban homes in a warming climate. Build Res Inform2013; 41(3): 281–300.
8.
GuptaRGreggM. Using UK climate change projections to adapt existing English homes for a warming climate. Build Environ2012; 55: 20–42.
9.
MavrogianniAWilkinsonPDaviesM. Building characteristics as determinants of propensity to high indoor summer temperatures in London dwellings. Build Environ2012; 55: 117–130.
10.
PorrittSCropperPShaoL. Ranking of interventions to reduce dwelling overheating during heat waves. Energy Build2012; 55: 16–27.
11.
GeorgiadouMCHackingTGuthrieP. Future-proofed energy design for dwellings: Case studies from England and application to the code for sustainable homes. Build Serv Eng Res Technol2012; 34(1): 9–22.
12.
OlonscheckMHolstenAKroppJP. Heating and cooling energy demand and related emissions of the German residential building stock under climate change. Energy Policy2011; 39(9): 4795–4806.
13.
DolinarMVidrihBKajfez-BogatajL. Predicted changes in energy demands for heating and cooling due to climate change. Phys Chem Earth2010; 35: 100–106.
14.
LoweR. Technical options and strategies for decarbonizing UK housing. Build Res Inform2007; 35(4): 412–425.
GuptaRIrvingR. Development and application of a domestic heat pump model for estimating CO2 emissions reductions from domestic space heating, hot water and potential cooling demand in the future. Energy Build2013; 60: 60–74.
Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers. CIBSE Guide A. Environmental design, London: The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, 2007.
23.
SassiP. A natural ventilation alternative to the Passivhaus Standard for a mild maritime climate. Buildings2012; 3: 61–78.
Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers. CIBSE TM52. The limits of thermal comfort: Avoiding overheating in European buildings, London: The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, 2013.
30.
CândidoCLambertsRde DearR. Towards a Brazilian standard for naturally ventilated buildings: Guidelines for thermal and air movement acceptability. Build Res Inform2011; 3: 145–153.
31.
RijalHTuohyPHumphreysM. Considering the impact of situation-specific motivations and constraints in the design of naturally ventilated and hybrid buildings. Architect Sci Rev2013; 55(1): 35–48.
32.
GuptaSCarmichaelCSimpsonC. Electric fans for reducing adverse health impacts in heatwaves. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews2012; 7.
33.
AynsleyR. How much do you need to know to effectively utilize large ceiling fans?Architect Sci Rev2012; 55(1): 15–25.
34.
HoSRosarioLRahmanM. Thermal comfort enhancement by using a ceiling fan. Appl Therm Eng2009; 29: 1648–1656.
AllenEAPinneyAA. Standard dwellings for modelling: details of dimensions, construction and occupancy schedules. Technical note 90/2, Watford: Building Environmental Performance Analysis Club, 1990.
50.
GoughMReesC. Tests performed on ApacheSim in accordance with ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140-2001, Glasgow: IES Ltd, 2004.
51.
IES VE. Space-heating equipment performance tests performed on ApacheSim in accordance with ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140-2007, http://www.iesve.com (2010, accessed 7 July 2012).
52.
IES VE. Space-cooling equipment performance tests performed on ApacheSim in accordance with ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140-2007, http://www.iesve.com (2011, accessed 7 July 2012).
