The plastics business-features large cyclical swings, both short and long term, and effective planning demands an appreciation of the mechanisms involved. Long-term plastics growth is typically 3% pa, but year-on-year growth or deline of 15-20% is normal rather than unusual, and such movements need to be anticipated. This paper outlines work developed during the 1970s in ICI Plastics Division (now a constituent part of Petrochemicals and Plastics Division), aimed at improving forecasting performance for plastics products by incorporating cyclical factors.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Fleming, M. and Nellis, J.1982. A new housing crisis, Lloyds Bank Review , April, 144, 38-53.
2.
Forrester, J.W.1976. 'Business structure, economic cycles, and national policy ', Futures,
3.
Lewis, J.P.1965. Building cycles and Britain's growth. Macmillan, London.
4.
Mass, N.J.1978. 'Economic fluctuations: A framework for analysis and policy design', IEEE Trans, SMC-8 (No 6) 437-449.
5.
Newberry, F.D.1952. Business forecasting. Principles and Practice, McGraw-Hill.
6.
Phillips and Drew.1977. Building Industry Review, Long term housing demand. December 7-9.
