Lessons of climate change,stories of solutions

Abstract

While there is little dissent in the scientific community that climate change directly correlates to human-caused greenhouse-gas emissions, action to reduce those emissions has not followed from the United States and many other governments around the world. Meanwhile, climate changes are already underway, and will continue to some degree even if emissions are drastically curtailed, thanks to emissions already in the atmosphere. Some countries and states are making their own plans to adapt to expected impacts including higher sea levels, more intense rainfall, droughts, heat waves, and loss of water supplies—and to reduce their local emissions. In this Global Forum, three experts highlight efforts by national and local governments in planning for 2100 and beyond. From the Netherlands, Arthur Mynett (2011); from Bangladesh, Saleemul Huq (2011); and from California, Martha Krebs. Over the months of January and February, this forum will continue at www.thebulletin.org.

The California climate-response story is one that is based on sustained leadership at a regional scale involving everyone from citizens to municipalities, to legislative and executive branch individuals, and organizations. California began its march for clean energy in the 1960s, when the smog that hovered over Southern California, obscuring the views of the San Gabriel Mountains, was a sign that the health of the citizens and the cities—from Los Angeles through the Great Central Valley—were threatened. In 1967, California created an agency to set requirements for cleaner automotive fuels and to reduce air emissions from its electric power plants—a development that took place three years before the creation of the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This climate change success was just the beginning for the state.

In 2000, the California Legislature began developing regulatory and voluntary approaches for the mitigation and adaptation to the effects of climate change. It mandated the establishment of a voluntary Climate Action Registry, which developed protocols for various carbon offsets that could be used by the private and public sector. The legislature also mandated the reduction of greenhouse gases emitted from automobiles and other light-duty vehicles through a novel interpretation of the Clean Air Act; in fact, it took five years of litigation for the Supreme Court to rule that carbon dioxide could be a pollutant subject to EPA regulation.

The California energy and environmental agencies were also active in this period. In 2003, they announced that, in going forward, electricity demand would be met first by energy efficiency and demand response, second by renewable resources, and third by clean fossil energy. In addition to recommending that private and public utilities become more energy efficient, the state also developed and implemented a research plan to create physical and economic modeling tools to assess the impacts and vulnerability of California to climate change. In 2005, statewide greenhouse-gas reduction targets were proposed for 2010, 2020, and 2050. By 2010, California was to be at 2000 levels; by 2020 at 1990 levels; and by 2050, the state would be at levels 80 percent below those in 1990.

In 2006, California enacted a landmark climate change law—the Global Warming Solutions Act—which legislated targets for 2020 carbon emissions levels and mandated a process that involved both regulations and an emissions trading process that would be in place by 2012. Though there was an attempt to overturn this in November 2010, voters overwhelmingly rejected the move, sending a strong pro-environment message from the state. For the past five years, California has relentlessly pushed to establish early actions, cumulative targets for individual sectors of the California economy, and a cap-and-trade design that would result in a reduction of about 170 million tons of carbon dioxide by 2020. In 2007, California announced climate change regulations, which were based on the assumption that existing efficiency and renewable energy targets in the utility sector would be met. The implementation of these regulations—as well as others expected under existing regulatory protocols—are expected to result in a reduction of more than 34 million tons of carbon dioxide.

The scoping plan

A critical milestone was reached in December 2008, when California adopted the Climate Change Scoping Plan—the most comprehensive strategy on global warming in the United States. The plan identified 18 sectors and mechanisms that could play a role in reducing the state’s greenhouse-gas emissions by 2020. Agriculture and forestry are not expected to present major opportunities in curbing emissions, the report highlighted—the major opportunities lie in the utility sector and light-duty vehicles, among other places.

Below are a few of the key targets that were set out in the plan:

Light-duty vehicles and the low-carbon fuel standard

Passenger vehicles in California are responsible for almost 30 percent of the state’s greenhouse-gas emissions. To curb this, a threefold approach is proposed in the plan: Reduce greenhouse-gas emissions from vehicles, reduce the carbon content of automotive fuels, and reduce the miles traveled by vehicles. By increasing the efficiency of the light-duty fleet and putting low-carbon fuel standards in place, nearly 47 million tons of carbon emissions could be reduced by 2020.

Renewable expansion in the electricity sector

California’s electric utilities are already under a mandate to achieve 20 percent renewable capacity by 2010, which it has not yet met. The scoping plan assumes not only that it meets this goal but increases the Renewable Portfolio Standard, a regulation that encourages states to use renewables, to 33 percent by 2020 to provide an additional reduction of 21 million tons. The “Million Solar Roofs,” a state goal to add one million solar roofs, would add 3,000 megawatts of distributed solar capacity and reduce emissions by an additional 2.1 million tons.

Electricity efficiency

California already has some of the strongest efficiency standards and utility incentive programs in the nation. The scoping plan builds on this and makes assumptions about progress toward zero-net energy homes and commercial buildings (those that require no annual energy consumption or carbon emissions), advanced air conditioning technology, efficiency retrofits throughout the building sector, and enhanced enforcement protocols, among others. This would achieve a reduction of 15.2 million tons of carbon dioxide by 2020.

Cap-and-trade program

The target through cap-and-trade is to reduce more than 35 million tons of carbon dioxide by 2020 across multiple sectors of the California economy.

The scoping plan lays out an ambitious agenda for the state to begin the mitigation of the impacts of climate change. The real challenge will be to deliver on these proposed targets in 2012, when the regulations are in full force.

Adaptation

Even the strongest mitigation protocols are not going to prevent California from suffering climate change impacts. Adaptation must be on the agenda of California agencies that deal with water, coastal lands, agriculture, and transportation—this understanding shaped the state’s 2009 Climate Adaptation Strategy, which identified how state agencies should respond to rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and extreme natural events. The strategy summarized current knowledge about climate change impacts in seven specific sectors: public health, biodiversity and habitat, oceans and coastal resources, water management, agriculture, forestry, and transportation and energy. A one-year progress report found that all involved agencies had begun the establishment of climate-specific activities, including research, stakeholder engagement, and the development of decision-support tools to assist California decision makers at the local, regional, and state levels.

Moving forward

Through the implementation of the Global Warming Solutions Act and its developing approach for adaptation, California will continue, as it has over the past 50 years, to be a leader in the United States in finding innovative legislative and institutional solutions for its environmental and energy problems. Its approaches have not always been perfect, but they have been persistent and progressive in implementing the values of Californians. In a country where US federal institutions have so far failed to provide a national policy, California’s efforts are one model for other states, but also smaller nations and sub-national entities around the world. In November 2010, California joined representatives from France, South Korea, Morocco, Oregon, Mexico, among many others, to announce the Regions of Climate Action (R20). Composed of sub-national governments, private partners, and non-government partners, R20 is a global coalition committed to fast-tracking the development and deployment of technology and policies that mitigate and manage the effects of climate change.

While climate change is a global phenomenon, its worst impacts will be vividly local. Global commitments and international compacts that hold over centuries will be necessary to achieve a sustainable, low-carbon energy system for our planet. But it is clear now that these international compacts and national policies cannot move forward without recognition and real policy commitments at the sub-national level—and why California’s efforts and its continued leadership to date are important to the world.