The Dynamics of Change Following Extreme Events: Transition,Scale,and Adaptation in Systems Under Stress

Abstract

Whether and how organizations adapt to risk in changing contexts is a perennial problem in public administration. We explore this problem in a comparative analysis of four hurricanes that struck the Gulf Coast in 2005 and 2008: Hurricanes Katrina and Gustav in Louisiana and Hurricanes Rita and Ike in Texas. We use a framework of complex adaptive systems to assess what changes facilitate this transition in disaster contexts and what conditions inhibit adaptation. Methods include content and network analysis, including the calculation of E/I index scores. Findings suggest that investment in information technology and training in Louisiana following a perceived poor response to Katrina in 2005 led to adaptive performance in Gustav in 2008 in Louisiana, whereas minimal change following a perceived credible response to Rita in 2005 led to slower adaptation in response to Ike in 2008 in Texas.

Keywords

collective action shared risk complex adaptive systems transition in operational response systems dynamics of scale in system performance

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