Local governments tend to produce disjointed planning and implementation responses to ambiguous problems. This study adapts a cognitive science framework known as active inference to investigate local government resilience planning and management processes. We contend that disconnects between planning and management reflect the inadequacy of the “knowledge infrastructure” systems which could enable more adaptive responses. Using a mixed-methods approach to study stormwater resilience in the U.S. state of Indiana, we find evidence that municipalities integrate planning and management efforts relative to experienced flooding impacts. However, they are less likely to proactively develop information on longer-term or more distant climate impacts.
AlbarracinMahaultDemekasDaphneRamsteadMaxwell J. D.HeinsConor. 2022. “Epistemic Communities under Active Inference.”Entropy24 (4): 476. doi:10.3390/e24040476.
2.
AlbroSandra. 2019. Vacant to Vibrant: Creating Successful Green Infrastructure Networks. Washington, DC: Island Press.
3.
AnderiesJohn M.2015. “Understanding the Dynamics of Sustainable Social-Ecological Systems: Human Behavior, Institutions, and Regulatory Feedback Networks.”Bulletin of Mathematical Biology77 (2): 259–80.
4.
AnderiesJohn M.BarreteauOlivierBradyUte. 2019. “Refining the Robustness of Social-Ecological Systems Framework for Comparative Analysis of Coastal System Adaptation to Global Change.”Regional Environmental Change19 (7): 1891–908.
5.
AnderiesJohn M.2013. “Aligning Key Concepts for Global Change Policy: Robustness, Resilience, and Sustainability.”Ecology and Society18 (2): 8. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26269292
6.
AnderiesJohn M.MathiasJean-DenisJanssenMarco A.2019. “Knowledge Infrastructure and Safe Operating Spaces in Social–ecological Systems.”Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences116 (12): 5277–84.
7.
BerardoRamiroScholzJohn T.2010. “Self-organizing Policy Networks: Risk, Partner Selection, and Cooperation in Estuaries.”American Journal of Political Science54 (3): 632–49.
8.
BoswellBrad. 2018. “How State Legislative Preemption in Indiana Bars Local Governments from Building a Positive Economic Future.”Indiana Law Review51 (2): 471–97.
9.
BovairdTony. 2008. “Emergent Strategic Management and Planning Mechanisms in Complex Adaptive Systems.”Public Management Review10 (3): 319–40.
10.
BozemanBarryKingsleyGordon. 1998. “Risk Culture in Public and Private Organizations.”Public Administration Review58 (2): 109–18.
11.
BrinkleyCatherineStahmerCarl. 2024. “What Is in a Plan? Using Natural Language Processing to Read 461 California City General Plans.”Journal of Planning Education and Research44 (2): 632–48.
12.
BrysonJohn M.EdwardsLauren HamiltonVan SlykeDavid M.2022. Toward a More Strategic View of Strategic Planning Research. London: Taylor & Francis.
13.
BullockJustin B.GreerRobert A.O’TooleLaurence J.2019. “Managing Risks in Public Organizations: A Conceptual Foundation and Research Agenda.”Perspectives on Public Management and Governance2 (1): 75–87.
14.
BurbyRaymond J.DaltonLinda C.1994. “Plans Can Matter! The Role of Land Use Plans and State Planning Mandates in Limiting the Development of Hazardous Areas.”Public Administration Review54 (3): 229–38.
15.
ChuErik K.FryMeridith M.ChakrabortyJayajitCheongSo-MinClavinChristopherCoffmanMakenaHondulaDavid M.HsuDavidJenningsViniece L.KeenanJesse M., et al. 2023. “Chapter 12: Built Environment, Urban Systems, and Cities.”Fifth National Climate Assessment. doi:10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH12.
16.
Young HanChunRaineyHal G.2005. “Goal Ambiguity and Organizational Performance in US Federal Agencies.”Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory15 (4): 529–57.
17.
ClarkAndy. 2023. The Experience Machine: How Our Minds Predict and Shape Reality. New York, NY: Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group.
CookLauren M.McGinnisSethSamarasConstantine. 2020. “The Effect of Modeling Choices on Updating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves and Stormwater Infrastructure Designs for Climate Change.”Climatic Change159 (2): 289–308.
20.
DeslatteAaron. 2022. “Organizing and Institutiona-lizing Local Sustainability: A Design Approach.” Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
21.
DeslatteAaronChungJuwonStokanEric. 2025. “Structural Drivers of Sustainability and Resilience Strategies in Small(ish) Cities: A Text Analysis of Comprehensive Planning in Indiana.”Journal of Environmental Planning and Management68(1): 185–206.
22.
DeslatteAaronKoebeleElizabeth A.WiechmanAdam. 2024. “Embracing the Ambiguity: Tracing Climate Response Diversity in Urban Water Management.”Public Administration Published online July12. doi:10.1111/padm.13017.
23.
DeslatteAaronKrauseRachel M.HawkinsChristopher V.2022. “The Road to Routinization: A Functional Collective Action Approach for Local Sustainability Planning and Performance Management.”State and Local Government Review54 (4): 310–27.
24.
DeslatteAaronSicilianoMichael D.KrauseRachel M.2024. “Applying Collective Action Frame-works to Analyse Local-Level Collaboration for Electric Vehicle-Related Policies.”Policy and Politics 1–21. doi:10.1332/03055736Y2024D000000034.
25.
DeslatteAaronStokanEric. 2020. “Sustainability Synergies or Silos? The Opportunity Costs of Local Government Organizational Capabilities.”Public Administration Review10:95.
26.
DunlopClaire A.KamkhajiJonathan C.RadaelliClaudio M.TaffoniGaia. 2022. “Measuring Design Diversity: A New Application of Ostrom’s Rule Types.”Policy Studies Journal50 (2): 432–52.
27.
FaveroNathanMeierKenneth J.O’TooleLaurence J.Jr.2014. “Goals, Trust, Participation, and Feedback: Linking Internal Management with Performance Outcomes.”Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory26 (2): 327–43.
28.
FriedmanMirit B.HughesSaraKirchhoffChristine J.RauhEleanorMcOmberChesneyManshardtDavis J.ProutJalyn M.2024. “Broadening Resilience: An Evaluation of Policy and Planning for Drinking Water Resilience in 100 US Cities.”Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions84:102798.
29.
FristonKarl. 2010. “The Free-Energy Principle: A Unified Brain Theory?”Nature Reviews Neuroscience11 (2): 127–38.
30.
FristonKarlFitzGeraldThomasRigoliFrancescoSchwartenbeckPhilippPezzuloGiovanni. 2017. “Active Inference: A Process Theory.”Neural Computation29 (1): 1–49.
31.
GarciaMargaretYuDavidParkSamuelBahambariPeyman YousefiIravanlooBehshad MohajerSivapalanMurugesu. 2022. “Weathering Water Extremes and Cognitive Biases in a Changing Climate.”Water Security15:100110.
32.
GillJeffWitkoChristopher. 2013. “Bayesian Analytical Methods: A Methodological Prescription for Public Administration.”Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory23 (2): 457–94.
33.
GoodmanChristopher B.HatchMegan E.McDonaldBruce D.2021. “State Preemption of Local Laws: Origins and Modern Trends.”Perspectives on Public Management and Governance4 (2): 146–58.
34.
HawkinsChristopher V.KrauseRachel M.DeslatteAaron. 2023. “Staff Support and Administrative Capacity in Strategic Planning for Local Sustainability.”Public Management Review25 (5): 879–900.
35.
HenstraDanielThistlethwaiteJasonVanhoorenShanaya. 2020. “The Governance of Climate Change Adaptation: Stormwater Management Policy and Practice.”Journal of Environmental Planning and Management63 (6): 1077–96.
HooverFushcia-AnnMeerowSaraColemanEmmaGrabowskiZbigniewMcPhearsonTimon. 2023. “Why Go Green? Comparing Rationales and Planning Criteria for Green Infrastructure in U.S. City Plans.”Landscape and Urban Planning237:104781.
38.
HughesSara. 2020. “Principles, Drivers, and Policy Tools for Just Climate Change Adaptation in Legacy Cities.”Environmental Science & Policy111:35–41.
39.
KimJaekyoungKangJunsuk. 2023. “Development of Hazard Capacity Factor Design Model for Net-Zero: Evaluation of the Flood Adaptation Effects Considering Green - Gray Infrastructure Interaction.”Sustainable Cities and Society96:104625.
40.
KimSerena Y.SwannWilliam L.WeibleChristopher M.BolognesiThomasKrauseRachel M.ParkAngela Y. S.TangTianMaletskyKiernanFeiockRichard C.2022. “Updating the Institutional Collective Action Framework.”Policy Studies Journal50 (1): 9–34.
41.
KrauseRachel M.HawkinsChristopher V.2021. “Viewpoints: Improving Cities’ Implementation of Sustainability Objectives.”Cities113:103167.
42.
KrauseRachel M.HawkinsChristopher V.ParkAngela Y. S.2021. “The Perfect Amount of Help: An Examination of the Relationship between Capacity and Collaboration in Urban Energy and Climate Initiatives.”Urban Affairs Review57 (2): 583–608.
43.
LadymanJamesWiesnerKaroline. 2020. What Is a Complex System?New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
44.
LindseyGregOttensmannJohnPalmerJamieWilsonJeffreyTutterrowJoseph. 2017. “Encouraging Smart Growth in a Skeptical State: University-Stakeholder Collaboration in Central Indiana.”Partnerships for Smart Growth: University-Community Collaboration for Better Public Places, edited by WiewelWim95–114. London: Routledge. doi:10.4324/9781315289816-15/encouraging-smart-growth-skeptical-state-university-stakeholder-collaboration-central-indiana.
45.
LubellMarkMewhirterJack M.BerardoRamiroScholzJohn T.2017. “Transaction Costs and the Perceived Effectiveness of Complex Institutional Systems.”Public Administration Review77 (5): 668–80.
McCabeJanet G.FilippelliGabriel M.NovickKimberly A.ShanahanJames. 2022. Climate Change and Resilience in Indiana and Beyond. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press.
48.
MeerowSara. 2020. “The Politics of Multifunctional Green Infrastructure Planning in New York City.”Cities100:102621.
49.
MeerowSaraKeithLadd. 2022. “Planning for Extreme Heat.”Journal of the American Planning Association88 (3): 319–34.
50.
MeerowSaraNewellJoshua P.2019. “Urban Resilience for Whom, What, When, Where, and Why?”Urban Geography40 (3): 309–29.
51.
MeerowSaraNewellJoshua P.StultsMelissa. 2016. “Defining Urban Resilience: A Review.”Landscape and Urban Planning147:38–49.
52.
MeleValentinaBelardinelliPaolo. 2019. “Mixed Methods in Public Administration Research: Selecting, Sequencing, and Connecting.”Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory29 (2): 334–47. doi:10.1093/jopart/muy046.
53.
OstromElinor. 1998. “A Behavioral Approach to the Rational Choice Theory of Collective Action: Presidential Address, American Political Science Association, 1997.”The American Political Science Review92 (1): 1–22.
54.
OstromElinor. 2010. “Polycentric Systems for Coping with Collective Action and Global Environmental Change.”Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions20 (4): 550–7.
55.
OttensmannJohnPalmerJamieWilsonJeffreyTutterrowJoseph. 2017. “Encouraging Smart Growth in a Skeptical State: University-Stakeholder Collaboration in Central Indiana.” In Partnerships for Smart Growth, pp. 95–114. London: Routledge, 2017.
56.
ParrThomasPezzuloGiovanniFristonKarl J.2022. Active Inference: The Free Energy Principle in Mind, Brain, and Behavior. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
57.
PoisterTheodore H.2010. “The Future of Strategic Planning in the Public Sector: Linking Strategic Management and Performance.”Public Admini-stration Review70:s246–54.
58.
PoisterTheodore H.StreibGregory. 2005. “Elements of Strategic Planning and Management in Municipal Government: Status after Two Decades.”Public Administration Review65 (1): 45–56.
RoyMaliniWoodruffSierraMeerowSaraHannibalBryceMatosMelinaGilbertsonPhilip. 2024. “Quality of Cities’ Networks of Plans and Prospects for Flood Resilience.”Journal of Planning Education and Research Published online March17. doi:10.1177/0739456X241236486.
SmithRyanFristonKarl J.WhyteChristopher J.2022. “A Step-by-Step Tutorial on Active Inference and Its Application to Empirical Data.”Journal of Mathematical Psychology107:102632. doi:10.1016/j.jmp.2021.102632.
63.
StokanEricDeslatteAaron. 2020. “Beyond Borders: Governmental Fragmentation and the Political Market for Growth in American Cities.”State and Local Government Review51 (3): 150–67.
64.
VeissièreSamuel P. L.ConstantAxelRamsteadMaxwell J. D.FristonKarl J.KirmayerLaurence J.2019. “Thinking through Other Minds: A Variational Approach to Cognition and Culture.”The Behavioral and Brain Sciences43:e90.
65.
WalkerBrianCrépinAnne-SophieNyströmMagnusAnderiesJohn M.AnderssonErikElmqvistThomasQueirozCibeleBarrettScottBennettElenaCardenasJuan Camilo, et al. 2023. “Response Diversity as a Sustainability Strategy.”Nature Sustainability6:621–9.
WiechmanAdamVicarioSara AlonsoAnderiesJohn M.GarciaMargaretAziziKooroshHornbergerGeorge. 2024. “Instit-utional Dynamics Impact the Response of Urban Socio-hydrologic Systems to Supply Challenges.”Water Resources Research60 (2): 1–25. doi:10.1029/2023wr035565.
68.
WoodruffSierra C.StultsMissy. 2016. “Numerous Strategies but Limited Implementation Guidance in US Local Adaptation Plans.”Nature Climate Change6(8): 796–802.
69.
WoodruffSierra C.MeerowSaraStultsMissyWilkinsChandler. 2022. “Adaptation to Resilience Planning: Alternative Pathways to Prepare for Climate Change.”Journal of Planning Education and Research42 (1): 64–75.
70.
WoodruffSierraTranThoLeeJessicaWilkinsChandlerNewmanGalenNdubisiForsterZandtShannon Van. 2021. “Green Infrastructure in Comprehensive Plans in Coastal Texas.”Journal of Environmental Planning and Management64 (9): 1578–98.
71.
YiHongtaoCuiCan. 2019. “Coping with Functional Collective Action Dilemma: Functional Fragmentation and Administrative Integration.”Public Management Review21 (7): 1052–75.
72.
YorkAbigail M.OttenCaitlin DrummondBurnSilverShaunaNeubergSteven L.AnderiesJohn M.2021. “Integrating Institutional Approaches and Decision Science to Address Climate Change: A Multi-Level Collective Action Research Agenda.”Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability52:19–26.
73.
ZhangFengxiuWelchEric W.MiaoQing. 2018. “Public Organization Adaptation to Extreme Events: Mediating Role of Risk Perception.”Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory28 (3): 371–87.
