How Political Ideology Shapes Military Spending? Political Determinants of Military Expenditures in EU and NATO Member Countries

Abstract

This article aims to test hypotheses regarding the nuanced influence of the political process on the level of disaggregated military spending in 29 European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries over the period 1999–2022. The results, based on the newly created dataset of election results in 510 municipalities or constituencies with military bases in the studied countries, indicate that governments with above-average support of military-related voters in previous elections spend more on the military during the entire term. This suggests that ruling politicians support their core voters. The results also indicate that right-wing governments tend to spend more on arms purchases, while left-wing governments tend to spend more on military personnel. It can be posited that government ideology may create compositional political budgetary cycles, due to the fact that in election years, left-wing governments significantly increase personnel expenditures, while right-wing governments spend more on arms.