The purpose of this study was to determine the factors that best predicted the military career success (twenty years of service and the achievement of the rank of lieutenant colonel) of Air Force Academy cadets. The Department of Institutional Research at the Air Force Academy provided the data. The sample included admitted cadets between 1982 and 1990. Three hypotheses were tested using probit regression: (1) admissions variables, (2) Academy variables, and (3) aeronautical status had a statistically significant impact on career success. The model was 97.34 percent accurate in predicting career failure, 12.50 percent accurate in predicting career success, and 75.57 percent accurate overall. These results suggest determinates of career success largely occur after graduation. They also suggest the possibility to identify those less likely to achieve career success using admissions and Academy variables. Academy leadership may design interventions to increase the likelihood cadets will achieve career success.
J. Lovell, Neither Athens nor Sparta? The American Service Academies in Transition ( Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1979).
2.
P. Caine, "A U.S. Air Force Academy Dilemma: Professional Military Studies," in Forging the Sword: Selecting, Educating, and Training Cadets and Junior Officers in the Modern World, ed. E. Converse (Chicago: Imprint Publications, 1998).
3.
Lovell, Neither Athens nor Sparta?
4.
Ibid.
5.
F. Pinch and E. Ouellet, "Sociology in the Canadian Military Academy Curriculum," Armed Forces & Society35, 1 (2008): 71-90.
6.
L. Heinecken and D. Visser, "Officer Education at the South African Military Academy: Social Science but No Sociology?" Armed Forces & Society35, 1 (2008): 145-61.
7.
H. Kawano, "The Expanding Role of Sociology at Japan National Defense Academy from None to Some and More?" Armed Forces & Society35, 1 ( 2008): 122-44.
8.
I. Obraztsov , "Teaching Sociology in Military Educational Institutions of Russia," Armed Forces & Society35, 1 ( 2008): 162-79.
9.
E. Danielsson and A. Weibull, "Sociology at Military Academies: The Swedish Case," Armed Forces & Society35, 1 (2008): 91-105.
10.
L. DeFleur and R. Warner, "Air Force Academy Graduates and Nongraduates: Attitudes and Self-Concepts ," Armed Forces & Society13, 4 (1987): 517-33.
11.
L. DeFleur, D. Gillman, and W. Marshak, "Sex Integration of the U.S. Air Force Academy: Changing Roles for Women," Armed Forces & Society4, 4 (1978): 607-22.
12.
M. Lewis, "Army Transformation and the Junior Officer Exodus," Armed Forces & Society31, 1 (2004): 63-93.
13.
B. Peck, "Assessing the Career Mobility of U.S. Army Officers: 1950-1974," Armed Forces and Society20, 2 (1994): 217-37.
14.
W. Bowman, "Do Engineers Make Better Naval Officers?" Armed Forces & Society16, 2 (1990): 271-86.
15.
M. Moore and G. Kearsley, Distance Education: A Systems View (Belmont, CA: Thomson Wadsworth, 2005).
16.
L. Galway, R. Buddin, M. Thirtle, S. Ellis, and J. Mele, Understrength Air Force Officer Career Fields: A Force Management Approach (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, Project Air Force, 2005). 17. Ibid.
17.
Ibid.
18.
Ibid.
19.
Ibid, xiii.
20.
Ibid.
21.
Ibid.
22.
Ibid., 9.
23.
Ibid.
24.
Ibid.
25.
Ibid., 55.
26.
Ibid.
27.
Ibid.
28.
Ibid.
29.
Ibid., 17.
30.
Ibid., 3-4.
31.
Ibid.
32.
Ibid., 50.
33.
D. McCormick , The Downsized Warrior: America’s Army in Transition (New York: New York University Press, 1998), 109.
34.
Galway et al., Understrength Air Force Officer Career Fields.
35.
McCormick, The Downsized Warrior.
36.
Galway et al., Understrength Air Force Officer Career Fields, 50.
37.
Ibid., 53.
38.
J. Shaud, An Analysis of Career Management for the Retention of Air Force Academy Graduates (Maxwell Air Force Base, ALAir Command and Staff College , June 1967).
39.
Ibid.
40.
R. Ehrenberg and R. Smith, Modern Labor Economics: Theory and Public Policy (Boston: Pearson Addison Wesley, 2006).
41.
Ibid., 297.
42.
Ibid.
43.
D. Checchi, The Economics of Education: Human Capital, Family Background, and Inequality (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
44.
Ehrenberg and Smith, Modern Labor Economics, 277.
45.
The study included multiple year groups to control for policy changes over time, such as periods of downsizing that occurred during the late 1980s and early 1990s.
46.
The negative impact of racial variables may indicate institutional discrimination at the Academy or in the Air Force promotion system. Interestingly, however, Webb found that African American cadets were actually more likely to graduate than Caucasian cadets. Given the higher probability of graduation compared to Caucasian cadets, it could be that the Academy admits black cadets who are, on average, of higher quality. If this were the case, black graduates may be more likely to leave active duty and pursue other opportunities that have high monetary rewards. See B. Webb, John F. Kennedy School of Government, To Graduate From USAFA: Identifying Which Admissions Criteria Make the Best Predictors of Cadet Success, A Policy Analysis (Harvard University: Cambridge, MA, 2006).
47.
The negative impact of prior academic record (PAR) indicates that the better the high school student, the less likely he or she was to succeed. The correlation of a higher PAR score with an increased probability of career failure could indicate that cadets who have higher levels of human capital after graduating high school are likely to have more opportunities outside of the Air Force and often choose not to complete a career of Air Force service. This would be consistent with labor economic theory discussed earlier.
48.
It is difficult to imagine a reason that the Candidate Fitness Test would have a negative impact on career success. In 1979, Jones and Westen found that both high school and cadet athletic achievement were negatively related to Academy GPA. It seems this finding may carry over into a career. See G. Jones and R. Westen, Integrating Multiple Criteria in Selection Procedures for Improving Quality and Reducing Cost Per Graduate (Paper presented at the 19th Annual Form of the Association for Institutional Research: San Diego, California, May 13-17, 1979).
49.
A possible explanation for the strong negative impact of United States Air Force Academy Preparatory School attendance on career success is that the extra year in a military training environment leads to fatigue or "burnout."
50.
The exact command line was "tabulate Success Pred_Success."
