This study takes a fresh conceptual look at modern military victory so as to shed new light on the meaning of victory in the post-Cold War global security context and to probe the pitfalls and opportunities surrounding the pursuit of war-winning and peace-winning strategies. This analysis identifies competing notions of victory, defines the notion of strategic victory, common fallacies by victors, and discusses some ideas about how to improve management of complexities surrounding modern victory.
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2.
Dominic Johnson and Dominic Tierney , The Chimera of Victory: Perceptions of Success and Failure in International Politics ( Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press , forthcoming): chapter 1.
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Stephen D. Biddle , Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle ( Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press , 2004): chapter 1; and Victor Davis Hanson , Why the West Has Won: Carnage and Culture from Solamis to Vietnam ( London : Faber and Faber , 2001).
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Maurice Hankey , Politics, Trials and Errors ( Oxford , UK: Pen-in-Hand , 1950), 26-7, as quoted in Richard Hobbs , The Myth of Victory: What is Victory in War? ( Boulder, CO: Westview , 1979), 5.
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William Flavin , “ Planning for Conflict Termination and Post-Conflict Success ,” Parameters32 (Autumn 2003): 97-98 .
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B. H. Liddell Hart , Strategy ( New York: Penguin , 1991), 357; and Johnson and Tierney , “Essence of Victory,” 352.
16.
Johnson and Tierney , “Essence of Victory,” 352.
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Carroll , “How Wars End,” 305.
18.
Monica Duffy Toft , “ End of Victory? Civil War Termination in Historical Perspective ” (paper presented at the annual national meeting of the International Studies Association, Honolulu, HI, March 2005), 6.
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20.
Johnson and Tierney , “Essence of Victory,” 350.
21.
Brian Bond , The Pursuit of Victory: From Napoleon to Saddam Hussein ( New York: Oxford University Press , 1996), 1.
22.
Johnson and Tierney , The Chimera of Victory, chapter 1.
23.
H.C. Calahan , What Makes a War End? ( New York: Vanguard , 1944), 18-9; Berenice A. Carroll , “ Victory and Defeat: The Mystique of Dominance,” in Stuart Albert and Edward C. Luck , eds., On the Endings of Wars ( Port Washington, NY: Kennikat Press , 1980), 51, 69-70.
24.
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25.
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27.
Page Fortna , “ Where Have All the Victories Gone? War Outcomes in Historical Perspective ” (paper presented at the annual national meeting of the International Studies Association, Honolulu, HI, March 2005), 32.
28.
Kevin Wang and James LeeRay, “Beginners and Winners: The Fate of Initiators of Interstate Wars Involving Great Powers Since 1495 ” International Studies Quarterly38 (March 1994): 150 .
29.
Toft , “End of Victory ?” 2.
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A.J.P. Taylor , How Wars End ( London: Hamish Hamilton , 1985), 103.
31.
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32.
Virginia PageFortna, Peace Time: Cease-Fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace ( Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press , 2004), 1.
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Robert C. Orr , “ After the War, Bring in a Civilian Force ,” International Herald Tribune (April 3, 2003), 8.
34.
Liddell Hart , Strategy, 338.
35.
Hanson W. Baldwin, GreatMistakes of the War ( New York: Harper & Brothers , 1950), 107-8.
36.
Metz and Millen , Future War/Future Battlespace, 22.
37.
Bond , The Pursuit of Victory , 201-2.
38.
Thomas G. Mahnken , “ A Squandered Opportunity? The Decision to End the Gulf War,” in Andrew J. Bacevich and Ephraim Inbar , eds., The Gulf War of 1991 Reconsidered ( Portland, OR: Frank Cass , 2003), 122-23.
39.
Metz and Millen , Future War/Future Battlespace, 22-23.
40.
Howard , “When Are Wars Decisive?” 130.
41.
Michael P. Noonan and John Hillen , “ The New Protracted Conflict: The Promise of Decisive Action ,” Orbis46 (Spring 2002): 236 .
42.
Albert and Luck , On the Endings of Wars, 3, 5.
43.
Liddell Hart , Strategy, 339.
44.
Dan Smith , The Penguin Atlas of War and Peace ( New York: Penguin Books , 2003), 107.
45.
Joint Publication 1-02 , Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms ( Washington, DC: Government Printing Office , March 23, 1994).
46.
Majors Justin Gage , William Martin , Tim Mitchell , and Pat Wingate , Winning the Peace in Iraq: Confronting America's Informational and Doctrinal Handicaps ( Norfolk, VA: Joint Forces Staff College , September 5, 2003), 11.
47.
Anthony H. Cordesman, The “Post Conflict” Lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan ( Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies monograph, May 19, 2004), v.
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49.
Richard O. Hundley and Robert H. Anderson , “Emerging Challenge: Security and Safety in Cyberspace,” in John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt , eds., In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age ( Santa Monica, CA: RAND , 1997), 231.
50.
Bruce D. Berkowitz , “ War Logs On: Girding America for Computer Combat ,” Foreign Affairs79 (May/June 2000): 8-12 .
51.
Libicki , “ Information War, Information Peace,” 416-17.
52.
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53.
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54.
Schelling , Arms and Influence , 34.
55.
Center for Strategic and International Studies and Association of the U.S. Army , Play to Win: Final Report of the Bi-Partisan Commission on Post-Conflict Reconstruction ( Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies and Association of the U.S. Army monograph , January 2003), 13.
56.
Metz and Millen , Future War/Future Battlespace, 6.
57.
Center for Strategic and International Studies and Association of the U.S. Army , Building Better Foundations , 2.
58.
Robert Mandel , The Changing Face of National Security: A Conceptual Analysis, ( Westport, CT: Greenwood , 1994), 24.
59.
Conrad Black , “ What Victory Means ,” National Interest (Winter 2001/2002): 156 .
60.
William J. Perry , “ Desert Storm and Deterrence in the Future,” in Joseph S. Nye , Jr. and Roger K. Smith , eds., After the Storm: Lessons from the Gulf War ( Lanham, MD: Madison Books , 1992), 241.
61.
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Paul W. Schroeder , “ The Risks of Victory ” National Interest (Winter 2001/2002): 31 .
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Piers Robinson , The CNN Effect: The Myth of News, Foreign Policy and Intervention ( New York: Routledge , 2002), 40.
64.
Alvin Toffler and Heidi Toffler, War andAnti-War ( New York: Warner Books , 1993), 215.
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Michael T. Klare , Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict ( New York: Henry Holt , 2001), 5-7; see also Robert Mandel , Conflict Over the World's Resources ( Westport, CT: Greenwood , 1988).
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69.
Peter Liberman , Does Conquest Pay? The Exploitation of Occupied Industrial Societies ( Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press , 1996), 19, 31.
70.
Gage , Martin , Mitchell , and Wingate , “Winning the Peace in Iraq,” 1-2.
71.
Jay L. Kaplan , “ Victor and Vanquished,” 83.
72.
Gage , Martin , Mitchell , and Wingate , “Winning the Peace in Iraq,” 4.
73.
Ibid.
74.
Allan C.Stam III, Win, Lose, or Draw: Domestic Politics and the Crucible of War ( Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press , 1996), 59.
75.
Fortna , Peace Time, 213.
76.
Robert Jervis , Perception and Misperception in International Politics ( Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press , 1976), chapter 4.
77.
Robert Mandel , “Adversaries Expectations and Desires about War Termination,” in Strategic War Termination , Stephen C. Cimbala , ed. ( Westport, CT: Praeger , 1986), 177.
78.
White , Nobody Wanted War , 303-5.
79.
Johnson and Tierney , The Chimera of Victory, chapter 1.
80.
Stephen Biddle , “Land Warfare: Theory and Practice,” in Strategy in the Contemporary World, John Baylis , James Wirtz , Eliot Cohen , and Colin S. Gray , eds. ( New York: Oxford University Press , 2002), 107.
81.
Lutz Unterseher , “Interventionism Reconsidered: Reconciling Military Action with Political Stability” (September 1999), http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/un101/index.html
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Ibid.
83.
Havely , “Why States Go to Cyber-War.”
84.
Gregory J. Rattray, StrategicWarfare in Cyberspace ( Cambridge, MA: MIT Press , 2001), 141.
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Antulio J. Echevarria II , Globalization and the Nature of War ( Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute monograph , March 2003), 16.
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Dominic D. P. Johnson , Overconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions ( Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press , 2004), 4, 36.
87.
Cordesman , Iraq and Conflict Termination, 19.
88.
Frederick W. Kagan , “ War and Aftermath ,” Policy Review120 (August-September 2003), 3-27 .
89.
Colin S. Gray , Modern Strategy ( New York : Oxford University Press , 1999), 99; Dower , War Without Mercy, 260-61.
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Gray , Modern Strategy, 99.
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Antulio J. Echevarria II , Toward an American Way of War ( Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute monograph , March 2004), 13-14, 16.
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Johnson , Overconfidence and War 4, 36.
93.
Zeev Maoz , Paradoxes of War ( Boston: Unwin Hyman , 1990), 253.
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Gray , Defining and Achieving Decisive Victory, 21-23.
95.
Robert Mandel , Security, Strategy, and the Quest for Bloodless War ( Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner , 2004).
96.
Anatol Lieven , “ Hubris and Nemesis: Kosovo and the Pattern of Western Military Ascendancy and Defeat,” in War Over Kosovo, Andrew J. Bacevich and Eliot A. Cohen , eds. ( New York: Columbia University Press , 2001), 120.
97.
Andrew M. Mack , “ Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars ,” World Politics27 (January 1975 ): 175-200 ; and Ivan Arreguin-Toft , “ How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict ,” International Security26 (Summer 2001): 93-128 .
98.
Albert and Luck , On the Endings of Wars, 243.
99.
Osgood , “Bush Administration's Strategic Policy Creates a Conundrum for U.S. Military.”
100.
Evans , “From Kadesh to Kandahar,” 141, 143.
101.
Anthony Zinni , “ Forum 2003: Understanding What Victory Is ,” Proceedings of the United States Naval Institute129 (October 2003): 32 .
102.
Wendela C. Moore , “Stability Operations: A Core Warfighting Capacity?” (2003), http://www.ndu.edu/library/n4/n03AMooreStability.pdf
103.
Adam Yarmolinsky , “Professional Military Perspectives on War Termination,” in Albert and Luck , On the Endings of Wars , 126.
104.
104.Stiefel , “ Rebuilding after War.”
105.
James K. Bishop , “Combat Role Strains Relations between America's Military and its NGOs” (Summer 2003), 28, http://www.humanitarian-review.org/upload/pdf/BishopEnglishFinal.pdf
106.
“ Transfer of Power in Iraq ” PBS Online News Hour (June 28, 2004), http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/jan-june04/sovereignty_6-28.html
107.
Center for Strategic and International Studies and Association of the U.S. Army , Meeting the Challenges of Governance and Participation in Post-Conflict Settings ( Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies and Association of the U.S. Army monograph , July 8, 2002), 1.
108.
Richard N. Haass , “ Regime Change and Its Limits ” Foreign Affairs84 (July/August 2005): 70 .
109.
Stiefel , “ Rebuilding after War.”
110.
Pei , “ Lessons of the Past,” 53.
111.
Phebe Marr , “ Occupational Hazards: Washington's Record in Iraq ” Foreign Affairs84 (July/August 2005): 181 .
112.
Center for Strategic and International Studies and Association of the U.S. Army , Meeting the Challenges of Governance and Participation in Post-Conflict Settings, 7.
113.
Albert and Luck , On the Endings of Wars, 4.
114.
William D. Hartung , The Hidden Costs of War (February 2003), 13, www.fourthfreedom.org/pdf/Hartung_report.pdf
115.
Bruce Bartlett , “The `Cost' of War: Iraq Oil will Rebuild Iraq” (March 26, 2003), http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_bartlett/bartlett032603.asp
116.
Stam , Win, Lose, or Draw, 2.
117.
Center for Strategic and International Studies and Association of the U.S. Army , Meeting the Challenges of Governance and Participation in Post-Conflict Settings, 7.
118.
Hobbs , The Myth of Victory, 475.
119.
Leonard Wibberley , The Mouse That Roared ( Boston: Little, Brown , 1955).
120.
Stiefel , “ Rebuilding after War.”
121.
Kaplan , “ Victor and Vanquished,” 78.
122.
People's Daily Online, “ Consequence of the Iraq War is Worrying ” (March 2003), http://fpeng.peopledaily.com.cn/200303/25/eng20030325_113943.shtml
123.
Anne Garrels , “ Covering the War in Iraq” ( Boston: John F. Kennedy Library and Foundation , September 29, 2003 ), http://www.cs.umb.edu/jfklibrary/forum_garrels.html
124.
Stiefel , “Rebuilding after War.”
125.
Center for Strategic and International Studies and Association of the U.S. Army , Play to Win, 7.
126.
Bernard Lewis , The Shaping of the Modern Middle East ( New York: Oxford University Press , 1994).
127.
Richard Holbrooke , “” Rebuilding Nations ,” Washington Post (April 1, 2002), A15.
128.
Thomas Carothers , “ From Victory to Success: Why Dictators Aren't Dominoes ,” Foreign Policy, 134 (July/August 2003): 59 .
129.
Edward N. Luttwak , On the Meaning of Victory: Essays on Strategy ( New York : Simon & Schuster , 1986), 289.
130.
Stiefel , “Rebuilding after War.”
131.
Smith , The Penguin Atlas of War and Peace, 106.
132.
Kevin C. M. Benson and Christopher B. Thrash , “ Declaring Victory: Planning Exit Strategies for Peace Operations ,” Parameters (August 1996): 69-80 .
133.
Charles W. Kegley, Jr. , and Gregory A. Raymond , How Nations Make Peace ( New York: St. Martin's , 1999), viii.
