When Opinions Polarize Without Persuasion: Modeling the Dynamics of Attitude-Opinion Convergence and Decoupling

Abstract

Digital media is often blamed for deepening societal divides by fostering echo-chambers that reinforce biases. However, the polarized opinions visible on the media may not necessarily indicate deeper fragmentation of hidden beliefs, which is often assumed to be driven by persuasion. Instead, public opinion polarization can emerge from contextual dynamics that decouple private attitudes from expressed opinions. This study explores these conditions through an agent-based model (ABM) that integrates the dynamics of attitude formation with the ‘spiral of silence’ theory. The simulations reveal that opinions can polarize or converge due to subtle contextual changes—such as changes in social connectivity or elite influence—even when the degree of attitude polarization remains moderate. Furthermore, the findings show that increased social connectivity attenuates the polarization of both attitudes and opinions, as greater exposure to diverse perspectives mitigates the effects of repulsion toward opposing views. These findings highlight how public opinions may fail to reliably reflect the true sentiments of the population, creating a misleading impression of a more fractured society while suggesting that increased connectivity could help mitigate such divisions.