Surrogate endpoints are used to document treatment effects more easily and rapidly, yet controversies arise in their use. Examples of ways in which reliance on surrogate endpoints can lead to false-positive or false-negative conclusions are given. The controversy surrounding CD4 levels as a surrogate endpoint in HIV/AIDS trials is discussed. Limitations of surrogate endpoints and the proper role for surrogate outcome data are covered.
FlemingTR. Evaluating therapeutic interventions: Some issues and experiences. Stat Sci.1992;7(4):428–456.
2.
The Cardiac Arrhythmia Pilot Study (CAPS) Investigators.Effects of encainide, flecainide, Imipramine, and moricizine on ventricular arrhythmias during the year after acute myocardial infarction: the CAPS. Am J Cardiology.1988; 61:501–509.
3.
The Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trail (CAST) Investigators.Preliminary Report: Effect of encainide and flecainide on mortality in a randomized trial of arrhythmia suppression after myocardial infarction. New Eng J Med.1989; 312:406–412.
4.
HallstromA. Antiarrhythmic drugs: Before and after the CAST. Washington Pub Health J.1992;10:48–50.
5.
The International Chronic Granulomatous Disease Cooperative Study Group.A controlled trial of interferon gamma to prevent infection in chronic granulomatous disease. New Eng J Med.1991;324:509–516.
6.
AbramsDGoldmanALaunderCKorvickJNeatonJCraneL. Comparative trial of didanosine and zalcitabine in patients with human immunodeficiency virus infection who are intolerant of or have failed zidovudine therapy. New Eng J Med.1994;330(1):657–662.
7.
FischlMCollierARichmanDSteinD. ACTG 155 Executive Summary. AIDS Clinical Trials Group, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, MD; 1993.
8.
Concorde Coordinating Committee.Concorde: MRC/ANRS randomized double-blind controlled trial of immediate and deferred zidovudine in symptom-free HIV infection. Lancet.1994;343:871–881.
9.
AboulkerJRSwartAM. Preliminary analysis of the Concorde Trial. Lancet.1993;341:889–890.
10.
SandeMACarpenterCCJCobbsCGHolmesKKSanfordJP, for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases State-of-the-Panel on Anti-Retroviral for Adult HIV Infected Patients. Anti-retroviral therapy for adult HIV-infected patients: Recommendations from a state-of-the-art conference. JAMA.1993;270:2583–2589.
11.
FlemingTR. Surrogate markers in AIDS and cancer trials. Stat Med.1994;13:1423–1435.
12.
FlemingTRPrenticeRLPepeMSGliddenD. Surrogate and auxiliary endpoints in clinical trials, with potential applications in cancer and AIDS research. Stat Med.1994;13:955–968.
13.
KosorokMRFlemingTR. Using surrogate failure time data to increase cost effectiveness in clinical trials. Biometrika.1993;80:823–833.