In this article, the authors forecast Japanese international travel to 2025. In addition to the usual economic variables, their model also captures both population aging and birth cohort effects on Japanese travel abroad. They predict the number of future Japanese overseas trips for males and females separately by 5-year age groups and in 5-year increments and conclude that the Japanese will continue to travel abroad in increasing numbers but that population aging will dramatically slow the rate of growth of future Japanese overseas travel. Although the number of overseas trips taken by “seniors” is predicted to increase sharply, the authors foresee fewer trips taken by the Japanese in the 20s and early 30s age groups. Finally, they examine the responses of the industry and the public sector in Japan to implications of a rapidly aging population on future international travel.
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