This article applies a combination of a diffusion model and a traditional tourism demand model for visitor demand estimation. The diffusion model assumes that information is transmitted to a society’s potential consumers through various different information channels. The traditional model suggests, however, that tourism, according to economic theory, depends mainly on fares, income, exchange rates, and dummy variables. Using data for tourists to the Balearic Islands, we found evidence that individuals undergo a prior process of acquiring information before deciding to visit a particular destination.
Bass, F. M. (1969). “A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables.”Management Science, 15: 215-227.
2.
Bull, A. (1995). The Economics of Travel and Tourism. London: Longman.
3.
Butler, R. W. (1980). “The Concept of a Tourist Area Cycle of Evolution: Implications for Management Resources.”Canadian Geographer, 24: 5-12.
4.
Crouch, G. I. (1994a). “The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Review of Findings.”Journal of Travel Research, 33 (1): 12-23.
5.
Crouch, G. I. (1994b). “The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Survey of Practice.”Journal of Travel Research, 32 (4): 41-55.
6.
De Mello, M., A. Pack, and T. Sinclair (2002). “A System of Equations Model of UK Tourism Demand in Neighbouring Countries.”Applied Economics, 34: 509-521.
7.
Frechtling, D. C. (2001). Forecasting Tourism Demand: Methods and Strategies. Oxford: Butterworth Heinemann.
8.
Geroski, P. A. (2000). “Models of Technology Diffusion.”Research Policy, 29: 603-625.
9.
Greenidge, K. (2001). “Forecasting Tourism Demand: An STM Approach.”Annals of Tourism Research, 28 (1): 98-112.
10.
Kulendran, N., and M. L. King (1997). “Forecasting International Quarterly Tourist Flows Using Error-Correction and Time-Series Models.”International Journal of Forecasting, 13: 319-327.
11.
Kulendran, N., and S. F. Witt (2001). “Cointegration versus Least Squares Regression.”Annals of Tourism Research, 28 (2), 291-311.
12.
Kulendran, N., and S. F. Witt (2003). “Forecasting the Demand for International Business Tourism.”Journal of Travel Research, 41 (3): 265-271.
13.
Lim, C. (1997). “An Econometric Classification and Review of International Tourism Models.”Tourism Economics, 3 (1): 69-82.
14.
Lim, C. (1999). “A Meta-Analytic Review of International Tourism Demand.”Journal of Travel Research, 37 (3): 273-289.
15.
Lim, C., and M. McAleer (2001). “Cointegration Analysis of Quarterly Tourism Demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia.”Applied Economics, 33: 1599-1619.
16.
Lyssiotou, P. (2000). “Dynamic Analysis of British Demand for Tourism Abroad.”Empirical Economics, 15: 421-436.
17.
Morley, C. L. (1992). “A Microeconomic Theory of International Tourism Demand.”Annals of Tourism Research, 19 (2): 250-267.
18.
Morley, C. L. (1995). “Tourism Demand: Characteristics, Segmentation and Aggregation.”Tourism Economics, 1: 250-267.
19.
Morley, C. L. (1998). “A Dynamic International Demand Model.”Annals of Tourism Research, 25 (1): 70-84.
20.
Preez, J., and S. F. Witt (2003). “Univariate versus Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: An Application to International Tourism Demand.”International Journal of Forecasting, 19: 436-451.
21.
Sakai, M. Y. (1988). “A Micro-Analysis of Business Travel Demand.”Applied Economics, 20: 1481-1495.
22.
Song, H., P. Romilly, and X. Liu (2000). “An Empirical Study of Outbound Tourism Demand in the UK.”Applied Economics, 32: 611-624.
23.
Song, H., and S. F. Witt (2000). Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches. Oxford: Pergamon.
24.
Song, H., and S. F. Witt (2003). “Tourism Forecasting: The General-to-Specific Approach.”Journal of Travel Research, 42 (1): 65-74.
25.
Song, H., and K. K. F. Wong (2003). “Tourism Demand Modelling: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach.”Journal of Travel Research, 42 (1): 57-64.
26.
Spanish Statistics Office. (n.d.). “Instituto Nacional de Estadística.”Retrieved April 25, 2005, from http://www.ine.es.
27.
Tideswell, C., T. Mules, and B. Faulkner (2001) “An Integrative Approach to Tourism Forecasting.”Journal of Travel Research, 40 (2): 162-171.
28.
Webber, A. G. (2001). “Exchange Rate Volatility and Cointegration in Tourism Demand.”Journal of Travel Research, 39 (4): 398-405.
29.
Witt, S. F., and C. A. Witt (1995). “Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Review of Empirical Research.”International Journal of Forecasting, 11: 447-475.
30.
Zellner, A. (1962). “An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias.”American Statistical Association Journal, 3: 348-368.
