Previous studies have shown that educational expectations of individuals with high socioeconomic status (SES) are relatively unaffected by low academic performance, a phenomenon called “sticky expectations.” However, this result might be biased by endogeneity and reverse causality between academic achievement and educational expectations. Using data from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study from 11 countries with a strict school-entry rule and building on the well-established finding that children born in the months before the school-entry cutoff underperform at school, we use birth month as an instrument to identify the causal effect of early academic achievement on parents’ expectations of university completion by parental education. Our findings based on the instrumental variable (IV) regression show that the moderation of social origin in the relationship between children’s performance and parental expectations is moderately overestimated in cross-sectional data. Nonetheless, the stickiness of high-SES parental expectations is confirmed in the IV model, proving that parental expectations are less affected by children’s early achievement when the parents are highly educated.
Altwicker-HámoriSzilviaKölloJános. 2012. “Whose Children Gain from Starting School Later? - Evidence from Hungary.”Educational Research and Evaluation18(5):459–88. doi:10.1080/13803611.2012.695142.
2.
AndrewMeganHauserRobert M.2011. “Adoption? Adaptation? Evaluating the Formation of Educational Expectations.”Social Forces90(2):497–520. doi:10.1093/sf/sor005.
3.
AngristJoshua D.KruegerAlan B.1991. “Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?”The Quarterly Journal of Economics106(4):979–1014.
4.
AngristJoshua D.PischkeJörn-Steffen. 2009. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
5.
ArrheniusBiancaGyllenbergDavidVuoriMiikaTiiriElinaLempinenLottaSouranderAndre. 2021. “Relative Age and Specific Learning Disorder Diagnoses: A Finnish Population-Based Cohort Study.”JCPP Advances1(1):e12001. doi:10.1111/jcv2.12001.
6.
BaruaRashmiLangKevin. 2016. “School Entry, Educational Attainment, and Quarter of Birth: A Cautionary Tale of a Local Average Treatment Effect.”Journal of Human Capital10(3):347–76. doi:10.1086/687599.
7.
BeckerDominik. 2013. “The Impact of Teachers’ Expectations on Students’ Educational Opportunities in the Life Course: An Empirical Test of a Subjective Expected Utility Explanation.”Rationality and Society25(4):422–69. doi:10.1177/1043463113504448.
8.
BedardKellyDhueyElizabeth. 2006. “The Persistence of Early Childhood Maturity: International Evidence of Long-Run Age Effects.”Quarterly Journal of Economics121(4):1437–72. doi:10.1162/qjec.121.4.1437.
9.
BernardiFabrizio. 2012. “Unequal Transitions: Selection Bias and the Compensatory Effect of Social Background in Educational Careers.”Research in Social Stratification and Mobility30(2):159–74. doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2011.05.005.
10.
BernardiFabrizio. 2014. “Compensatory Advantage as a Mechanism of Educational Inequality: A Regression Discontinuity Based on Month of Birth.”Sociology of Education87(2):74–88. doi:10.1177/0038040714524258.
11.
BernardiFabrizioValdésManuel T.2021. “Sticky Educational Expectations: A Cross-Country Comparison.”Research in Social Stratification and Mobility75:100624. doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2021.100624.
12.
BlackSandra E.DevereuxPaul J.SalvanesKjell G.2011. “Too Young to Leave the Nest? The Effects of School Starting Age.”Review of Economics and Statistics93(2):455–67. doi:10.1162/REST_a_00081.
13.
BozickRobertAlexanderKarlEntwisleDorisDauberSusanKerrKerri. 2010. “Framing the Future: Revisiting the Place of Educational Expectations in Status Attainment.”Social Forces88(5):2027–52.
14.
BreenRichardGoldthorpeJohn H.1997. “Explaining Educational Differentials: Towards a Formal Rational Action Theory.”Rationality and Society9(3):275–305. doi:10.1177/104346397009003002.
15.
BreenRichardYaishMeir. 2006. “Testing the Breen-Goldthorpe Model of Educational Decision Making.” Pp. 232–58 in Mobility and Inequalities: Frontiers of Research in Sociology and Economics, edited by MorganS. L.Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
16.
BuchmannClaudiaDaltonBen. 2002. “Interpersonal Influences and Educational Aspirations in 12 Countries: The Importance of Institutional Context.”Sociology of Education75(2):99–122. doi:10.2307/3090287.
17.
BuchmannClaudiaParkHyunjoon. 2009. “Stratification and the Formation of Expectations in Highly Differentiated Educational Systems.”Research in Social Stratification and Mobility27(4):245–67. doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2009.10.003.
18.
BucklesKasey S.HungermanDaniel M.2013. “Season of Birth and Later Outcomes: Old Questions, New Answers.”Review of Economics and Statistics95(3):711–24. doi:10.1162/REST_a_00314.
19.
BukodiErzsébetGoldthorpeJohn H.2022. “Intergenerational Class Mobility in Industrial and Post-industrial Societies: Towards a General Theory.”Rationality and Society34(3):271–301. doi:10.1177/10434631221093791.
20.
CarolanBrian V.2017. “Assessing the Adaptation of Adolescents’ Educational Expectations: Variations by Gender.”Social Psychology of Education20(2):237–57. doi:10.1007/s11218-017-9377-y.
21.
CascioElizabeth U.SchanzenbachDiane Whitmore. 2016. “First in the Class? Age and the Education Production Function.”Education Finance and Policy11(3):225–50. doi:10.1162/EDFP_a_00191.
22.
CattaneoMatias D.JanssonMichaelMaXinwei. 2018. “Manipulation Testing Based on Density Discontinuity.”The Stata Journal18(1):234–61. doi:10.1177/1536867X1801800115.
23.
ChengSimonStarksBrian. 2002. “Racial Differences in the Effects of Significant Others on Students’ Educational Expectations.”Sociology of Education75(4):306–27. doi:10.2307/3090281.
24.
CrawfordClaireDeardenLorraineMeghirCostas. 2010. “When You Are Born Matters: The Impact of Date of Birth on Educational Outcomes in England.” IFS Working Papers No. 10,06. London: Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
25.
CriadoEnrique MartínBuenoCarmuca Gómez. 2017. “Las expectativas parentales no explican el rendimiento escolar.”Revista Española de Sociología26(1):33–52. doi:10.22325/fes/res.2016.2.
26.
DatarAshleshaGottfriedMichael A.2015. “School Entry Age and Children’s Social-Behavioral Skills: Evidence from a National Longitudinal Study of U.S. Kindergartners.”Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis37(3):333–53. doi:10.3102/0162373714547268.
27.
DochowStephanNeumeyerSebastian. 2021. “An Investigation of the Causal Effect of Educational Expectations on School Performance. Behavioral Consequences, Time-Stable Confounding, or Reciprocal Causality?”Research in Social Stratification and Mobility71:100579. doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100579.
28.
DockeryAlfred M.KoshyPaulLiIan W.2022. “Parental Expectations of Children’s Higher Education Participation in Australia.”British Educational Research Journal48(4):617–39. doi:10.1002/berj.3786.
29.
DuncanGreg J.MurnaneRichard J., eds. 2011. Whither Opportunity? Rising Inequality, Schools, and Children’s Life Chances. New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation.
30.
EliasMarinaDazaLidia. 2019. “Configuración y reconfiguración de las expectativas educativas después de la educación obligatoria: un análisis longitudinal.”International Journal of Sociology of Education8(3):206–35. doi:10.17583/rise.2019.4479.
31.
FishmanSamuel H.2019. “Do Plans Really Matter? Re-assessing the Role of Adolescent Expectations in Educational Attainment.”Research in Social Stratification and Mobility62:100407. doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2019.05.002.
32.
ForsterAndrea G.2021. “Caught by Surprise: The Adaptation of Parental Expectations after Unexpected Ability Track Placement.”Research in Social Stratification and Mobility76:100630. doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2021.100630.
33.
FredrikssonPeterÖckertBjörn. 2013. “Life-Cycle Effects of Age at School Start.”The Economic Journal124(579):977–1004. doi:10.1111/ecoj.12047.
34.
FumarcoLucaBaertStijnSarracinoF.2020. “Younger, Dissatisfied, and Unhealthy–Relative Age in Adolescence.”Economics and Human Biology37:100858. doi:10.1016/j.ehb.2020.100858.
35.
GevenSaraForsterAndrea G.2021. “The Adaptation of Educational Expectations in Response to Ability Tracking: Variations by Migration Background.”The British Journal of Sociology72(5):1284–310. doi:10.1111/1468-4446.12886.
36.
GoldenbergClaudeGallimoreRonaldReeseLeslieGarnierHelen. 2001. “Cause or Effect? A Longitudinal Study of Immigrant Latino Parents’ Aspirations and Expectations, and Their Children’s School Performance.”American Educational Research Journal38(3):547–82. doi:10.3102/00028312038003547.
37.
González-BetancorSara M.López-PuigAlexis J.2016. “Grade Retention in Primary Education Is Associated with Quarter of Birth and Socioeconomic Status.”PLoS One11(11):e0166431. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0166431.
38.
HegnaKristinn. 2014. “Changing Educational Aspirations in the Choice of and Transition to Post-compulsory Schooling – A Three-Wave Longitudinal Study of Oslo Youth.”Journal of Youth Studies17(5):592–613. doi:10.1080/13676261.2013.853870.
HuangChengZhangShiyingZhaoQingguo. 2020. “The Early Bird Catches the Worm? School Entry Cutoff and the Timing of Births.”Journal of Development Economics143:102386. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.102386.
41.
Huntington-KleinNick. 2020. “Instruments with Heterogeneous Effects: Bias.”Journal of Causal Inference8:182–208.
42.
JacobBrian A.WilderTamara. 2011. “Educational Expectations and Attainment.” Pp. 133–64 in Whither Opportunity? Rising Inequality, Schools, and Children’s Life Chances, edited by DuncanG. J.MurnaneR. J.New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation.
43.
JerrimJohn. 2014. “The Unrealistic Educational Expectations of High School Pupils: Is America Exceptional?”Sociological Quarterly55(1):196–231. doi:10.1111/tsq.12049.
44.
KarlsonKristian Bernt. 2015. “Expectations on Track? High School Tracking and Adolescent Educational Expectations.”Social Forces94(1):115–41. doi:10.1093/sf/sov006.
45.
KarlsonKristian Bernt. 2019. “Expectation Formation for All? Group Differences in Student Response to Signals about Academic Performance.”Sociological Quarterly60(4):716–37. doi:10.1080/00380253.2019.1580549.
46.
KawaguchiDaiji. 2011. “Actual Age at School Entry, Educational Outcomes, and Earnings.”Journal of the Japanese and International Economies25(2):64–80. doi:10.1016/j.jjie.2009.02.002.
47.
KimTaehoon. 2021. “Age Culture, School-Entry Cutoff, and the Choices of Birth Month and School-Entry Timing in South Korea.”Journal of Demographic Economics87(1):33–65. doi:10.1017/dem.2020.16.
48.
LeszczenskyLarsWolbringTobias. 2022. “How to Deal with Reverse Causality Using Panel Data? Recommendations for Researchers Based on a Simulation Study.”Sociological Methods and Research51(2):837–65. doi:10.1177/0049124119882473.
49.
McCraryJustin. 2008. “Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test.”Journal of Econometrics142(2):698–714. doi:10.1016/J.JECONOM.2007.05.005.
50.
ObermeierVanessaSchneiderThorsten. 2015. “Educational Choice and Risk Aversion: How Important Is Structural vs. Individual Risk Aversion?”Journal for Educational Research Online7(2):99–128.
51.
OosterbeekHesselMeulenSimon tervan der KlaauwBas. 2021. “Long-Term Effects of School-Starting-Age Rules.”Economics of Education Review84:102144. doi:10.1016/j.econedurev.2021.102144.
52.
PageLionelSarkarDipanwitaSilva-GoncalvesJuliana. 2017. “The Older the Bolder: Does Relative Age among Peers Influence Children’s Preference for Competition?”Journal of Economic Psychology63:43–81. doi:10.1016/j.joep.2017.10.002.
53.
PalmerioLauraCaponeraElisa. 2021. “TIMSS Mathematics Achievement, School Grades and National Test Scores: Different or Similar Measures of Student Learning?” Pp. 37–56 in INVALSI Data: Methodologies and Results, edited by FalzettiP.Milan, Italy: FrancoAngeli.
54.
ParkSueukWellsRyanBillsDavid. 2015. “Changes in Educational Expectations between 10th and 12th Grades across Cohorts.”Social Psychology of Education18(3):561–83. doi:10.1007/s11218-015-9302-1.
55.
ParkerPhilip D.JerrimJohnSchoonIngridMarshHerbert W.2016. “A Multination Study of Socioeconomic Inequality in Expectations for Progression to Higher Education: The Role of Between-School Tracking and Ability Stratification.”American Educational Research Journal53(1):6–32. doi:10.3102/0002831215621786.
56.
PeñaPablo A. 2017. “Creating Winners and Losers: Date of Birth, Relative Age in School, and Outcomes in Childhood and Adulthood.”Economics of Education Review56:152–76. doi:10.1016/j.econedurev.2016.12.001.
RothTobias. 2017. “Interpersonal Influences on Educational Expectations: New Evidence for Germany.”Research in Social Stratification and Mobility48:68–84. doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2016.12.001.
59.
RuksMirko. 2022. “A Genetically Informed Perspective on the Formation of Educational Expectations.” SocArXiv Papers. doi:10.31235/osf.io/pqh75.
60.
SchneeweisNicoleZweimüllerMartina. 2014. “Early Tracking and the Misfortune of Being Young.”Scandinavian Journal of Economics116(2):394–428. doi:10.1111/sjoe.12046.
61.
ShigeokaHitoshi. 2015. “School Entry Cutoff Date and the Timing of Births.” NBER Working Paper. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. doi:10.3386/w21402.
62.
SkirbekkVegarKohlerHans-PeterPrskawetzAlexia. 2004. “Birth Month, School Graduation, and the Timing of Births and Marriages.”Demography41(3):547–68. doi:10.1353/dem.2004.0028.
63.
SmythEmer. 2020. “Shaping Educational Expectations: The Perspectives of 13-Year-Olds and Their Parents.”Educational Review72(2):173–95. doi:10.1080/00131911.2018.1492518.
64.
ValdésManuel T. 2022. “Unequal Expectations? Testing Decisional Mechanisms for Secondary Effects of Social Origin.”Social Science Research105:102688. doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2021.102688.
65.
ValdésManuel T. 2023a. “Looking at the Future from the Periphery of the System: Low-Ability Grouping and Educational Expectations.”Educational Review75(5):952–75. doi:10.1080/00131911.2021.1978400.
66.
ValdésManuel T. 2023b. “Understanding the Stickiness in High-SES Students’ Educational Expectations: The Role of Private Schools.”Rationality and Society35(1):110–36. doi:10.1177/10434631221142266.
67.
ValdésManuel TRequenaMiguel. 2024. “The Effect of the Age at School Entry on Educational Attainment and Field of Study: An Analysis Using the Spanish Census.”Higher Education87:1061–83. doi:10.1007/S10734-023-01053-5.
68.
WibergMarie. 2019. “The Relationship between TIMSS Mathematics Achievements, Grades, and National Test Scores.”Education Inquiry10(4):328–43. doi:10.1080/20004508.2019.1579626.
69.
WuChing LingBaiHaiyan. 2015. “From Early Aspirations to Actual Attainment: The Effects of Economic Status and Educational Expectations on University Pursuit.”Higher Education69(3):331–44. doi:10.1007/s10734-014-9778-1.
70.
ZhangChunniXieYu. 2018. “Does the School Cutoff Date Cause the Disadvantage for Children Born in July and August?”Journal of Chinese Sociology5:1–21. doi:10.1186/s40711-018-0075-8.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
