Fuel Distribution and Consumption Simulation in the Republic of Armenia

Abstract

The energy and fuel situation in Armenia has remained extremely critical over the past few years. Transport routes for energy supplies have been blockaded due to the geopolitical situation, and industrial production has declined five times faster than has electricity production, creating a deteriorating economic situation. Although the situation improved when a unit of the Medzamor nuclear plant was re-connected to the network in 1996, the plant alone cannot satisfy expected fu ture demand, and the supply of fuel from outside sources remains very unreliable. Improving the generation and distribution of energy in all sectors is vital. In this paper, a simulation program is developed to facilitate short-term fuel distribution and consumption forecasting under an uncertain supply scenario. The simulation is used as a tool in decision making to select branches of industry to sustain at a desired level when communication and pipeline failures occur. Supply bases are clustered via their interactions. Fuel consump tion modes of consumers, along with their priorities, are some of the input parameters of the model. The system dynamics for the simulation study are illustrated with two model examples.