A simulation procedure for sample size determination in electric utility load research

Abstract

Estimating the customer demand for electricity plays a crucial role in the equitable determination of customer electric utility rates. To estimate the customer demand accurately, it is necessary to determine the appropriate sample size. Due to the unique requirements imposed by the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act of 1978, existing procedures to determine sample size fail to provide the optimal sample size that will satisfy the re quirements at the minimum cost. The objective of this study is to develop and describe a simulation based procedure that is capable of achieving both criteria. The effectiveness of the pro cedure is tested for selected distributions of electrical demand. The study also identifies other instances where similar sample size determination problems occur and how the newly developed procedure can be used in these situations as well.

Keywords

energy statistical analysis Monte Carlo,stockastic estimation

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