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Abstract

A disaggregate population model of China is presented: the age structure is represented by one-year cohorts; urban and rural populations are distinguished; birth and death rates, family size, life expectancy, and other demographic variables are determined endogenously. The model can be used to analyze population problems and to project population size, the age structure, the adult labor force, the elderly population, and so on. The model can be used in two modes: to project the consequences of various exogenous fertility levels and to determine endogenously birth rates and fertility by economic inputs such as food supply, GDP, and services. Socioeconomic factors important in the demo graphic transition are incorporated into the model, such as the effect of perceived life expectancy on fertility, the effects of tradi tional values, and the ability of government to influence family fertility choices. Policies and programs designed to control population growth, such as delayed marriage age, improved con traception, and restrictions on family size can be evaluated.

Required inputs are industrial, service, and food output per worker, and also the level of pollution. The model should be thought of as a component of a comprehensive planning model which generates these inputs endogenously.

Based on the system dynamics approach to modeling complex systems, the model is implemented in the DYNAMO simulation language.

Keywords

demographics DYNAMO population regional,system dynamics

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