Abstract
The rapidly increasing fuel prices and the associat ed changes in our economic conditions will influence the future needs for energy considerably. Histori cal trends for the growth of energy consumption can no longer be expected to continue, and studying the needs for long-term development of energy requires a model that provides an adequate level of detail and includes both technological and economic factors.
our model of the Danish industrial production sec tors divides the energy consumption into four com ponents : space heating, lighting and ventization, process heat, and production processes. Relation ships are included that estimate the cost of saving energy through such measures as improved building insuzation, waste-heat regeneration, cogeneration of steam and electricity, and reduction of the use of process heat. It is assumed that the industry actually institutes those measures that have a re payment time below an adjustable maximum value.
Our model allows experimentation with various scenarios for both general economic conditions and fuel prices. Although the model does not include a complete thermodynamic description of the flow of energy through the system, it does provide insight into the real potential for energy conservation.
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