On duplicity in the modeling of public problems

George Orwell , 1984 (New York: Signet ed. , 1961), p. 176

Webster's Seventh New Collegiate Dictonary, 1967 ed.

Ida R. Hoos , Systems Analysis in Public Policy (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1972)

See Garry D. Brewer , "Operational Social Systems Modeling: Pitfalls and Prospectives," Policy Sciences, vol. 10, December 1978, pp. 157-169 and references therein.

Daniel Guttman and Barry Willner , The Shadow Government: the Government's Multi-Billion Dollar Giveaway of Its Decision-Making Powers to Private Management Consultants, "Experts," and Think Tanks (New York: Pantheon Books, 1976) presents the general indictment; Philip M. Boffey, The Brain Bank of America (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1975) amplifies the anti-intellectualism theme; and Harold Orlans, "Neutrality and Advocacy in Policy Research," Policy Sciences , vol. 6, no. 2, June 1975, pp. 107-119, makes a stinging case against the scientist as advocate.

Gary Fromm , William L. Hamilton , and Diane E. Hamilton , Federally Supported Mathematical Models:

Survey and Analysis (Washington, D.C.: National Science Foundation, 1975) conclude that mathematical models suffer from inadequate documentation, nonexistent evaluation and professional review, and underutilization.

In urban planning, Douglass B. Lee, Jr."Requiem for Large-Scale Models," Journal of the American Institute of Planners, May 1973, and from the military modeling experience, Garry D. Brewer and Martin Shubik, The War Game: a Critique of Military Problem Solving (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1979) provide more detailed evidence.

Glenn A. Kent , "Decision-Making," Air University Review, vol. 22, May-June 1971, p. 62

A more extensive discussion of these points is contained in Garry D. Brewer, "What Ever Happened to Professionalism?" Interfaces, vol. 8, no. 4, August 1978, pp. 63-72.

J.A. Jackson , ed., Professions and Professionalism (Cambridge, Massachusetts, Cambridge University Press, 1970)

Ben-David , "The Professional Role of the Physician in Bureaucratized Medicine: a Study in Role Conflict," Human Relations, vol. 11, 1958, pp. 225-274

John K. Walker , Jr. , "General Session V: Professional Ethics and Standards," Proceedings of Military Operations Research Symposium 27, Arlington, Virginia, 1971, p. 1

William Kornhauser , Scientists in Industry: Conflict and Accommodation (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1952)

Warren O. Hagstrom , The Scientific Community ( New York: Basic Books, 1965)

Incisive guidelines for evaluation are offered in Saul I. Gass, "Evaluation of Complex Models," Computer and Operations Research, vol. 4, 1977, pp. 27-35; R.E. Schellenberger, "Criteria for Assessing Model Validity for Managerial Purposes," Decision Sciences, vol. 5, no. 5, 1974; and R.E. Pugh, Evaluation of Policy Simulation Models (Washington, D.C.: Information Resource Press, 1977).

D. Lloyd , "The Disciplinary Powers of Professional Bodies," Modern Law Review, vol. 13, 1950 , pp. 281-306, describes the precedents for such action.

Robert T. Holt and John E. Turner , "The Scholar as Artisan," Policy Sciences, vol. 5, no. 3, September 1974, pp. 257-270

Taylor Branch , "Courage without Esteem: Profiles in Whistle-Blowing ," Washington Monthly, vol. 3, no. 3, May 1971, pp. 23-41, supports this contention.

U.S. General Accounting Office , Case Studies of Auditing in a Computer-Based Systems Environment ( Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973)

U.S. General Accounting Office , High Turnover of Managers Directing Major Research and Development Projects (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1970)

U.S. General Accounting Office , Improvements Needed in Managing Automated Decisionmaking by Computers throughout the Federal Government (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976)

Though inconsistently observed, standards have indeed been developed. See, for example, "Guidelines for the Practice of Operations Research," Operations Research, vol. 19, no. 5, September 1971.

Garry D. Brewer , Politicians, Bureaucrats and the Consultant (New York: Basic Books, 1973) devised and used these topics for urban models. They seem applicable to models in general.

Ralph Strauch , "'Squishy' Problems and Quantitative Methods ," Policy Sciences, vol. 6, no. 2, June 1975, pp. 175-184