What Happened to Parishioner Giving During & After Covid-19? Estimating the Effects of Covid-19 on Religious Donating Behavior

Abstract

This study investigates how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced donor behavior among parishioners of US Catholic churches. A statistical forecast models donation frequency and amounts following COVID-19 based on pre-pandemic trends. Comparing these predictions to actual donation amounts provides a measurement of the COVID-19 impact over the first two years following the onset of the pandemic. The analysis suggests that the overall impact of COVID-19 on total donations in the first two years was relatively minor, with decreases of 2.6 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively. However, this aggregate figure obscures noteworthy changes in donor dynamics. Not surprisingly, a large minority of those who gave in the 12 months prior to COVID stopped giving in the 12 months following its onset (just over 4 out of 10 parishioners). Further, among continuing donors, the frequency of giving declined by approximately 10 percent. However, those who remained active increased their average gift size by 48 percent over the forecast in the first year following the onset of the pandemic. This increase in gift size was persistent into the second year, even as the frequency of donations returned to pre-pandemic levels. These findings highlight a complex shift in donor behavior in response to the pandemic.