This study tests hypotheses based on crime pattern theory: (a) There are associations between parolee recidivism and property, drug, and violent crime hotspots within 1,200 feet of their residences; (b) these effects are uneven, with smaller associations found closer to the parolee residence. Survival analysis was conducted on arrests for 1,632 parolees released from New Jersey prisons, between July 2007 and June 2009, and who spent time in Newark. The research provides some qualified support for an association between local crime hotspots and parolee recidivism, though significant associations were sparse. Associations close to home were entirely absent.
AndrewsD. A.BontaJ. (1995). The Level of Service Inventory-Revised. Toronto, Ontario, Canada: Multi Health Systems.
2.
AndrewsD. A.BontaJ. (2006). The psychology of criminal conduct (4th ed.). Cincinnati, OH: Anderson.
3.
BelleraC. A.MacGroganG.DebledM.de LaraC. T.BrousteV.Mathoulin-PélissierS. (2010). Variables with time-varying effects and the Cox model: Some statistical concepts illustrated with a prognostic factor study in breast cancer. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 10, 20-32.
4.
BernascoW. (2010). A sentimental journey to crime: Effects of residential history on crime location choice. Criminology, 48, 389-416.
5.
BernascoW.BlockR. (2011). Robberies in Chicago: A block-level analysis of the influence of crime generators, crime attractors, and offender anchor points. Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, 48, 33-57.
6.
BichlerG.Christie-MerrallJ.SechrestD. (2011). Examining juvenile delinquency within activity space: Building a context for offender travel patterns. Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, 48, 472-506.
7.
BlockR.BlockC. R. (1995). Space, place and crime: Hot spot areas and hot spot places of liquor-related crime. In EckJ. E.WeisburdD. (Eds.), Crime and place (pp. 145-183). Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press.
8.
BlockR.GalaryA.BriceD. (2007). The journey to crime: Victims and offenders converge in violent index offences in Chicago. Security Journal, 20, 123-137.
9.
BragaA.WeisburdD. (2010). Policing problem places: Crime hot spots and effective prevention. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
10.
BrantinghamP. J.BrantinghamP. L. (1981). Notes on the geometry of crime. In BrantinghamP. J.BrantinghamP. L. (Eds.), Environmental criminology (pp. 27-54). Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
11.
BrantinghamP. J.BrantinghamP. L. (2008). Crime pattern theory. In WortleyR.MazerolleL. (Eds.), Environmental criminology and crime analysis (pp. 78-93). London, England: William Publishing.
12.
BrantinghamP. L.BrantinghamP. J. (1995). Criminality of place: Crime generators and crime attractors. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 3, 5-26.
13.
CaplanJ. M.KennedyL. W.MillerJ. (2011). Risk terrain modeling: Brokering criminological theory and GIS methods for crime forecasting. Justice Quarterly, 28(2), 360-381.
14.
CanterD.LarkinP. (1993). The environmental range of serial rapists. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 13, 63-69.
15.
ChaineyS.ThompsonL.UhligS. (2008). The utility of hotspot mapping for predicting spatial patterns of crime. Security Journal, 21, 4-28.
16.
ClarkT. G.BradburnM. J.LoveS. B.AltmanD. G. (2003). Survival analysis Part IV: Further concepts and methods in survival analysis. British Journal of Cancer, 89, 781-786.
17.
ClarkeR. V. (2009). Situational crime prevention: Theoretical background and current practice. In KrohnM. D.LizotteA. J.HallG. P. (Eds.), Handbook on crime and deviance (pp. 259-276). New York, NY: Springer Science and Business Media.
18.
ClarkeR. V.EckJ. (2005). How to become a problem solving analyst in 60 small steps. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services.
19.
ClearT. R.KarpT. R. (1999). The community justice ideal. Boulder, CO: Westview.
20.
ClevesM. A.GouldW.GutierezR. (2002). An introduction to survival analysis using Stata (1st ed.). College Station, TX: Stata Press.
21.
CohenL. E.FelsonM. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44, 488-608.
22.
CornishD.ClarkeR. V. (1986). “Introduction.” In CornishD.ClarkeR. V. (Eds.), The reasoning criminal: Rational choice perspectives on offending (pp. 1-16). New York, NY: Springer-Verlag.
23.
CoxD. R. (1972). Regression models and life tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 34, 187-220.
24.
CullenF.EckJ.LowenkampC. (2002). Environmental corrections: A new paradigm for effective supervision. Federal Probation, 66, 2828-2837.
25.
DaviesA.DaleA. (1995). Locating the stranger rapist (Police Research Group Special Interest Series: Paper 3). London, England: Home Office.
26.
DickeyW.KlingeleC. (2004, May12-13). Promoting public safety: A problem oriented approach to prisoner reentry. Reentry Roundtable Meeting, The Urban Institute, Washington, DC.
27.
EckJ. E. (1994). Drug markets and drug places: A case-control study of the spatial structure of illicit drug dealing (Doctoral dissertation). University of Maryland, College Park.
28.
EckJ. E.ChaineyS.CameronJ. G.LeitnerM.WilsonR. W. (2005). Mapping crime: Understanding hotspots. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice.
29.
EckJ. E.ClarkeR. V.GueretteR. T. (2007). Risky facilities: Crime concentration in homogeneous sets of establishments and facilities. Crime Prevention Studies, 21, 225.
30.
EckJ. E.WeisburdD. (1995). Crime and place. Monsey, NY: Willow Tree Press.
31.
FelsonM. (1995). Those who discourage crime. In EckJ. E.WeisburdD. (Eds.), Crime and place (pp. 53-66). Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press.
32.
GendreauP.LittleT.GogginC. (1996). A meta-analysis of the predictors of adult offender recidivism: What works. Criminology, 34, 575-608.
33.
GibbsJ. P.MartinW. T. (1962). Urbanization, technology, and the division of labor. American Sociological Review, 27, 667-677.
34.
GroffE. R.La VigneN. G. (2002). Forecasting the future of predictive crime mapping. Crime Prevention Studies, 13, 29-57.
35.
HarriesK. (2002). Applications of geographic analysis in parole and probation. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice.
36.
HippJ.PetersiliaJ.TurnerS. (2010). Parolee recidivism in California: The effect of neighborhood context and social service agency characteristics. Criminology, 48, 947-979.
37.
JacobsonJ. (1999). Policing drug hotspots (Police Research Series No. 9). London, England: Home Office, Policing and Reducing Crime Unit.
38.
KellingG. L.ColesC. M. (1998). Fixing broken windows: Restoring order and reducing crime in our communities. New York, NY: Touchstone.
39.
KubrinC. E.StewartE. (2006). Predicting who reoffends: The neglected role of neighborhood context in recidivism studies. Criminology, 44, 165-197.
40.
LesterD.MurrellM. E. (1981). The influence of gun control laws on suicidal behavior. American Journal of Psychiatry, 137, 121-122.
41.
LesterD.MurrellM. E. (1982). The preventive effect of strict gun control laws on suicide and homicide. Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior, 12, 131-140.
42.
LowenkampC. T.BechtelK. (2007). Predictive validity of the LSI-R on a sample of offenders drawn from the records of the Iowa Department of Corrections Data management system. Federal Probation, 71, 25-29.
43.
MillerJ.CaplanJ. M.OstermannM. (2016). Home nodes, criminogenic places, and parolee failure: Testing an environmental model of offender risk. Crime & Delinquency, 63, 169-199.
44.
MorenoffJ. D. (2011). Neighborhoods, recidivism, and employment among returning prisoners. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice.
45.
RaoS. R.SchoenfeldD. A. (2007). Survival methods. Circulation, 115, 109-113.
46.
RatcliffeJ. H. (2004). Geocoding crime and a first estimate of a minimum acceptable hit rate. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 18, 61-72.
47.
RossmoD. K. (2000). Geographic profiling. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
48.
RossmoD. K.RomboutsS. (2008). Geographic profiling. In WortleyR.MazerolleL. (Eds.), Environmental criminology and crime analysis (pp. 136-149). London, England: William Publishing.
49.
SampsonR. J.RaudenbushS. W.EarlsF. (1997). Neighborhoods and violent crime: A multilevel study of collective efficacy. Science, 277, 918-924.
50.
ShawC. R.McKayH. H. (1931). Juvenile delinquency in urban areas. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
51.
ShermanL. W.GartinP. R.BuergerM. E. (1989). Hotspots of predatory crime: Routine activities and the criminology of place. Criminology, 27, 27-56.
52.
SorensenD. W. M. (2005). The journey to Danish residential burglary. Copenhagen, Denmark: Ministry of Justice.
53.
St. JeanP. K. B. (2007). Pockets of crime. Broken windows, collective efficacy, and the criminal point of view. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
54.
TaylorR. B. (1988). Human territorial functioning: An empirical, evolutionary perspective on individual and small group territorial cognitions, behaviors, and consequences (No. 8). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
55.
TaylorR. B.HarrellA. V. (1996). Physical environment and crime. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice.
56.
TurnerS. (1969). Delinquency and distance. In WolfgangM. E.SevinT. (Eds.), Delinquency: Selected studies (pp. 11-26). New York, NY: John Wiley.
57.
U.S. Census Bureau. (2011). American Factfinder. Available from factfinder.census.gov
58.
WarrenJ. I.ReboussinR.HazelwoodR. R.CummingsA.GibbsN. A.TrumbettaS. L. (1998). Crime scene and distance correlates of serial rape. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 14, 35-59.
59.
WeisburdD.BruinsmaG. J. N.BernascoW. (2009). Units of analysis in geographic criminology: Historical development, critical issues, and open questions. In WeisburdD.BeranscoW.BruinsmaG. J. N. (Eds.), Putting crime in its place: Units of analysis in geographic criminology (pp. 3-31). New York, NY: Springer.
60.
WeisburdD.EckJ. E. (1995). Crime places in crime theory. In EckJ. E.WeisburdD. (Eds.), Crime and place (pp. 145-183). Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press.
61.
WeisburdD.GreenL. (1994). Defining the street-level drug market. In MackenzieD.UchidaC. (Eds.), Drugs and crime: Evaluating public policy initiatives (pp. 61–76). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
62.
WeisburdD.GreenL. (1995). Policing drug hot spots: The Jersey City drug market analysis experiment. Justice Quarterly, 12, 711-736.
63.
WilsonJ. Q.KellingG. L. (1982, March). Broken windows: The police and neighborhood safety. Atlantic Monthly, 249, 29-38.
64.
WortleyR.MazerolleL. (2008). Environmental criminology and crime analysis: Situating the theory, analytic approach and application. In WortleyR.MazerolleL. (Eds.), Environmental criminology and crime analysis (pp. 1-18). London, England: Willian Publishing.
65.
ZipfG. K. (1949). Human behavior and the principle of least effort. An introduction to human ecology. Cambridge, MA: Addison-Wesley.
