Party System and Coalition Formation in Post-Reform New Zealand

Abstract

Has the first MMP election in New Zealand in 1996 led to a new party system? We argue that the post-reform party system has changed its format while its mechanics remain virtually unchanged because the underlying competition logic stays bipolar. The fundamental variable that decides if this is a correct description is the existence of a permanent and genuine centre party. In order to assess the potential for establishing such a party we look at three aspects: (I) Based on an expert survey we find that the dimensionality of the party system and party positions have not changed dramatically. This leaves little scope for a change to multipolar party competition. (2) Applying a range of formal coalition theories shows that those theories based on the size principle are particularly successful in predicting the actual outcome of the coalition formation. We argue that the office-seeking motivation plays an important role with those actors located in the centre of the party system. (3) As to the characteristics of the 'new' parties in the system, we interpret these parties as 'Schumpeterian' political entrepreneurs who instead of being genuine centre parties strategically place themselves in the centre in order to enhance their bargaining power.