Does Early Success in Cadet and Junior World Championships Extend Elite Judo Careers?

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of early success in cadet and junior World Championships on career longevity among elite judo athletes, focusing on the critical transition from junior to senior levels. Using survival analysis, we examined dropout rates and career durations for medalists and non-medalists, defining career termination as a period of at least two consecutive years without international competition. The results from the Cox regression showed that medalists exhibited significantly lower risks of career termination in certain years (e.g., 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016), with reductions ranging from 43% to 75%. However, this protective effect was inconsistent, with no significant differences observed in other years. Factors such as injuries, performance stagnation, and structural changes in the International Judo Federation’s ranking system likely contributed to these variations, particularly during years of significant policy shifts. Our findings highlight the importance of early success in extending career duration while emphasizing that it is not a guaranteed predictor of long-term success. These insights indicate the need for tailored athlete development programs that address physical, psychological, and social dimensions, as well as further research to understand the mechanisms supporting career longevity and inform policies aimed at sustaining elite judo athletes.