Agreeing to elections is generally seen as a key way to settle armed conflict and prevent recurrent violence. However, the transition from violent conflict to nonviolent electoral competition can be fraught with many challenges. Stable electoral competition requires trust in institutions, but trust often takes a long time to develop and is often lacking in post-conflict elections. We argue that UN peacebuilding operations can play an indispensable role in the development of stable electoral institutions through three interrelated ways: reducing political and electoral violence, supporting democratic attitudes and norms of peaceful coexistence, and reinforcing institutional capacity and the rule of law. Using a new measure of the expected quality of elections in post-conflict countries between 1946 and 2012, we show that UN peace missions are associated with better elections and a greater likelihood of successful transitions to electoral competition compared to post-conflict countries without UN involvement. We also find larger differences when the UN is involved in establishing electoral institutions, especially when there is no or limited prior electoral competition, indicating that the UN is effective at assisting the democratization processes in difficult contexts.
ArıBGizelisT-I (2020) Civil conflict fragmentation and the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations. International Peacekeeping27(4): 617–644.
2.
AutesserreS (2010) The Trouble with the Congo: Local Violence and the Failure of International Peacebuilding. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
3.
BahAS (2012) Sierra Leone. In: CaplanR (ed.) Exit Strategies and State Building. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 101–117.
4.
BarbieriKKeshkOMGPollinsBM (2009) Trading data: Evaluating our assumptions and coding rules. Conflict Management and Peace Science26(5): 471–491.
5.
BeardsleyKGleditschKS (2015) Peacekeeping as conflict containment. International Studies Review17(1): 67–89.
6.
BeardsleyKSchmidtH (2012) Following the flag or following the charter? Examining the determinants of UN involvement in international crises, 1945–2002. International Studies Quarterly56(1): 33–49.
7.
BirchSDaxeckerUHöglundK (2020) Electoral violence: An introduction. Journal of Peace Research57(1): 3–14.
8.
BlairRA (2021) UN peacekeeping and the rule of law. American Political Science Review115(1): 51–68.
9.
BlairRADi SalvatoreJSmidtHM (2022) When do UN peacekeeping operations implement their mandates?American Journal of Political Science66(3): 664–680.
10.
BlairRADi SalvatoreJSmidtHM (2023) UN peacekeeping and democratization in conflict-affected countries. American Political Science Review117(4): 1308–1326.
BrancatiDSnyderJL (2011) Rushing to the polls: The causes of premature postconflict elections. Journal of Conflict Resolution55(3): 469–492.
13.
BrancatiDSnyderJL (2013) Time to kill: The impact of election timing on postconflict stability. Journal of Conflict Resolution57(5): 822–853.
14.
Bueno de MesquitaBDownsGW (2006) Intervention and democracy. International Organization60(3): 627–649.
15.
CampbellSPDi SalvatoreJ (2024) Keeping or building peace? UN peace operations beyond the security dilemma. American Journal of Political Science68(3): 907–926.
16.
CheibubJAGandhiJVreelandJR (2010) Democracy and dictatorship revisited. Public Choice143(1–2): 67–101.
DaxeckerU (2012) The cost of exposing cheating: International election monitoring, fraud, and post-election violence in Africa. Journal of Peace Research49(4): 503–516.
19.
DeRouenKChowdhuryI (2018) Mediation, peacekeeping and civil war peace agreements. Defence and Peace Economics29(2): 130–146.
20.
DeRouenKFergusonMJNortonS, et al. (2010) Civil war peace agreement implementation and state capacity. Journal of Peace Research47(3): 333–346.
21.
Di SalvatoreJLundgrenMOksamytnaK, et al. (2022) Introducing the peacekeeping mandates (PEMA) dataset. Journal of Conflict Resolution66(4–5): 924–951.
22.
DiamondL (2002) Thinking about hybrid regimes. Journal of Democracy13(2): 21–35.
23.
DiamondL (2006) Promoting democracy in post-conflict and failed states: Lessons and challenges. Taiwan Journal of Democracy2(2): 93–116.
24.
DoyleMWSambanisN (2000) International peacebuilding: A theoretical and quantitative analysis. American Political Science Review94(4): 779–801.
25.
DoyleMWSambanisN (2006) Making War and Building Peace: United Nations Peace Operations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
26.
EcklesDLKamCDMaestasCL, et al. (2014) Risk attitudes and the incumbency advantage. Political Behavior36(4): 731–749.
27.
EdgellABMechkovaVAltmanD, et al. (2018) When and where do elections matter? A global test of the democratization by elections hypothesis, 1900–2010. Democratization25(3): 422–444.
28.
FjeldeHSmidtHM (2022) Protecting the vote? Peacekeeping presence and the risk of electoral violence. British Journal of Political Science52(3): 1113–1132.
29.
FloresTENooruddinI (2012) The effect of elections on postconflict peace and reconstruction. Journal of Politics74(2): 558–570.
30.
FortnaVP (2004) Does peacekeeping keep peace? International intervention and the duration of peace after civil war. International Studies Quarterly48(2): 269–292.
31.
FortnaVP (2008a) Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents’ Choices After Civil War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
32.
FortnaVP (2008b) Peacekeeping and democratization. In: JarstadAKSiskTD (eds) From War to Democracy: Dilemmas of Peacebuilding. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 39–79.
33.
FortnaVPHowardLM (2008) Pitfalls and prospects in the peacekeeping literature. Annual Review of Political Science11(1): 283–301.
34.
FortnaVPHuangR (2012) Democratization after civil war: A brush-clearing exercise. International Studies Quarterly56(4): 801–808.
35.
GleditschKS (2002) Expanded trade and GDP data. Journal of Conflict Resolution46(5): 712–724.
36.
GleditschNPWallensteenPErikssonM, et al. (2002) Armed conflict 1946–2001: A new dataset. Journal of Peace Research39(5): 615–637.
37.
GoemansHEGleditschKSChiozzaG (2009) Introducing Archigos: A dataset of political leaders. Journal of Peace Research46(2): 269–283.
38.
GursesMMasonTD (2008) Democracy out of anarchy: The prospects for post-civil-war democracy. Social Science Quarterly89(2): 315–336.
39.
HadeniusATeorellJ (2007) Pathways from authoritarianism. Journal of Democracy18(1): 143–157.
40.
Hafner-BurtonEMHydeSDJablonskiRS (2014) When do governments resort to election violence?British Journal of Political Science44(1): 149–179.
41.
HansonJKSigmanR (2021) Leviathan’s latent dimensions: Measuring state capacity for comparative political research. Journal of Politics83(4): 1495–1510.
42.
HartzellCAHoddieM (2015) The art of the possible: Power sharing and post-civil war democracy. World Politics67(1): 37–71.
43.
HegreHHultmanLNygårdHM (2019) Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations. Journal of Politics81(1): 215–232.
44.
HowardLM (2008) UN Peacekeeping in Civil Wars. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
45.
HuangR (2016) The Wartime Origins of Democratization: Civil War, Rebel Governance, and Political Regimes. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
46.
HultmanLKathmanJShannonM (2013) United Nations peacekeeping and civilian protection in civil war. American Journal of Political Science57(4): 875–891.
47.
HultmanLKathmanJShannonM (2014) Beyond keeping peace: United Nations effectiveness in the midst of fighting. American Political Science Review108(4): 737–753.
48.
HydeSDMarinovN (2012) Which elections can be lost?Political Analysis20(2): 191–210.
49.
InklaarRde JongHBoltJ, et al. (2018) Rebasing ‘Maddison’: New income comparisons and the shape of long-run economic development. GGDC Research Memorandum GD-174, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
50.
JarstadAKSiskTD (2008) From War to Democracy: Dilemmas of Peacebuilding. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
51.
JoshiM (2010) Post-civil war democratization: Promotion of democracy in post-civil war states, 1946–2005. Democratization17(5): 826–855.
52.
JoshiM (2013) United Nations peacekeeping, democratic process, and the durability of peace after civil wars. International Studies Perspectives14(3): 362–382.
53.
JoshiMMelanderEQuinnJM (2017) Sequencing the peace: How the order of peace agreement implementation can reduce the destabilizing effects of post-accord elections. Journal of Conflict Resolution61(1): 4–28.
54.
KathmanJBensonM (2019) Cut short? United Nations peacekeeping and civil war duration to negotiated settlements. Journal of Conflict Resolution63(7): 1601–1629.
55.
KathmanJWoodRM (2016) Stopping the killing during the ‘Peace’: Peacekeeping and the severity of postconflict civilian victimization. Foreign Policy Analysis12(1): 149–169.
56.
KnutsenCHNygårdHMWigT (2017) Autocratic elections: Stabilizing tool or force for change?World Politics69(1): 98–143.
57.
KoopsJAMacqueenNTardyT, et al. (2015) The Oxford Handbook of United Nations Peacekeeping Operations. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
58.
KrawczykKA (2019) Ghana’s 2012 general election: Free, fair, and flawed? In: BrownMHaleKKingBA (eds) The Future of Election Administration: Cases and Conversations. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Pivot, 93–102.
59.
LindbergSI (2006) Democracy and Elections in Africa. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
60.
LipsetSM (1959) Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy. American Political Science Review53(1): 69–105.
61.
LiuLWangYXuY (2024) A practical guide to counterfactual estimators for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data. American Journal of Political Science68(1): 160–176.
62.
LloydG (2021) New data on UN mission mandates 1948–2015: Tasks assigned to missions in their mandates (TAMM). Journal of Peace Research58(5): 1149–1160.
63.
MaekawaWArıBGizelisT-I (2019) UN involvement and civil war peace agreement implementation. Public Choice178(3–4): 397–416.
64.
MarshallMGJaggersK (2020) Polity5 project: Political regime characteristics and transitions, 1800–2018. Center for Systemic Peace. Available at: https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p5manualv2018.pdf (accessed 28 February 2025).
65.
MartinADQuinnKMParkJH (2011) MCMCpack: Markov chain Monte Carlo in R. Journal of Statistical Software42(9): 1–21.
66.
MatanockAM (2017) Electing Peace: From Civil Conflict to Political Participation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
67.
MillerMK (2015) Democratic pieces: Autocratic elections and democratic development since 1815. British Journal of Political Science45(3): 501–530.
68.
MironovaVWhittS (2017) International peacekeeping and positive peace: Evidence from Kosovo. Journal of Conflict Resolution61(10): 2074–2104.
69.
MvukiyeheE (2018) Promoting political participation in war-torn countries: Microlevel evidence from postwar Liberia. Journal of Conflict Resolution62(8): 1686–1726.
70.
MvukiyeheESamiiC (2017) Promoting democracy in fragile states: Field experimental evidence from Liberia. World Development95: 254–267.
NorrisPFrankRWi ComaFM (2013) Assessing the quality of elections. Journal of Democracy24(4): 124–135.
73.
O’DonnellGASchmitterPC (1993) Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions About Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
74.
OudraatCdJ (1996) The United Nations and internal conflict. In: BrownME (ed.) The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 489–535.
75.
ParisR (2004) At War’s End: Building Peace After Civil Conflict. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
76.
PemsteinDMarquardtKLTzelgovE, et al. (2020) The V-Dem measurement model: Latent variable analysis for cross-national and cross-temporal expert-coded data. V-Dem Working paper no. 21, Varieties of Democracy Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden. Available at: https://v-dem.net/media/publications/Working_Paper_21_z5BldB1.pdf (accessed 28 February 2025).
77.
PetterssonTÖbergM (2020) Organized violence, 1989–2019. Journal of Peace Research57(4): 597–613.
78.
PoulignyB (2005) Civil society and post-conflict peacebuilding: Ambiguities of international programmes aimed at building ‘new’ societies. Security Dialogue36(4): 495–510.
79.
PrzeworskiA (1991) Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Studies in Rationality and Social Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
80.
PrzeworskiA (2005) Democracy as an equilibrium. Public Choice123(3–4): 253–273.
81.
PrzeworskiAAlvarezMECheibubJA, et al. (2000) Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
82.
ReillyB (2002) Elections in post-conflict scenarios: Constraints and dangers. International Peacekeeping9(2): 118–139.
83.
ReillyB (2008) Post-war elections: Uncertain turning points of transition. In: JarstadAKSiskTD (eds) From War to Democracy: Dilemmas of Peacebuilding. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 157–181.
84.
RuggeriADorussenHGizelisT-I (2017) Winning the peace locally: UN peacekeeping and local conflict. International Organization71(1): 163–185.
85.
RussellKSambanisN (2022) Stopping the violence but blocking the peace: Dilemmas of foreign-imposed nation building after ethnic war. International Organization76(1): 126–163.
86.
RussettBMOnealJR (2001) Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations. New York, NY: Norton.
87.
SingerDJ (1987) Reconstructing the Correlates of War Dataset on Material Capabilities of States, 1816–1985. International Interactions14(2): 115–132.
88.
SingerDJBremerSStuckeyJ (1972) Capability distribution, uncertainty, and major power war, 1820–1965. In: RussetBM (ed.) Peace, War, and Numbers. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 19–48.
89.
SmidtH (2020a) Mitigating election violence locally: UN peacekeepers’ election-education campaigns in Côte d’Ivoire. Journal of Peace Research57(1): 199–216.
90.
SmidtH (2020b) United Nations peacekeeping locally: Enabling conflict resolution, reducing communal violence. Journal of Conflict Resolution64(2–3): 344–372.
91.
SmidtH (2021) Keeping electoral peace? Activities of United Nations peacekeeping operations and their effects on election-related violence. Conflict Management and Peace Science38(5): 580–604.
92.
StedmanSJ (1997) Spoiler problems in peace processes. International Security22(2): 5–53.
93.
SteinertJIGrimmS (2015) Too good to be true? United Nations peacebuilding and the democratization of war-torn states. Conflict Management and Peace Science32(5): 513–535.
94.
StojekSMTirJ (2015) The supply side of United Nations peacekeeping operations: Trade ties and United Nations-led deployments to civil war states. European Journal of International Relations21(2): 352–376.
95.
von BillerbeckSTanseyO (2019) Enabling autocracy? Peacebuilding and post-conflict authoritarianism in the Democratic Republic of Congo. European Journal of International Relations25(3): 698–722.
96.
von BorzyskowskiIKuhnPM (2020) Dangerously informed: Voter information and pre-electoral violence in Africa. Journal of Peace Research57(1): 15–29.
97.
WalterBFHowardLMFortnaVP (2021) The extraordinary relationship between peacekeeping and peace. British Journal of Political Science51(4): 1705–1722.
WilsonMCLindbergSI (2016) Beyond first elections: The importance of consistency in the timing of recurrent elections. V-Dem Working paper 32. Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2794767 (accessed 20 December 2024).
